[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 242234
SWODY1
SPC AC 242233

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0533 PM CDT MON APR 24 2006

VALID 242000Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER
PORTIONS OF OK AND S-CNTRL KS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER
PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS INTO THE MD MS VALLEY...

...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...

SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES COMPLEX SURFACE PATTERN THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS REGION. PRIMARY COLD FRONT APPEARS TO EXTEND FROM
S-CNTRL/SERN NEB SSWWD TO LOW PRESSURE OVER NWRN OK AND THEN INTO
THE SRN TX PNHDL.  AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY /SLOWLY SAGGING SWWD/ EXTENDS
FROM THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER NWRN OK ESEWD TO ONGOING MCS OVER
NERN OK INTO NWRN AR.  A SECONDARY LOW HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED
OVER SWRN OK AT INTERSECTION OF COLD FRONT WITH DRY LINE WHICH
EXTENDS SWD INTO W-CNTRL TX.

18Z OUN SOUNDING INDICATES THAT BOUNDARY-LAYER HAS MOISTENED SINCE
12Z WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.  THIS MOISTURE COUPLED
WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE CONTRIBUTING TO A MODERATELY TO
POTENTIALLY STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPES OF 2000-3000
J/KG.  VISIBLE SATELLITE AND THIS SOUNDING DATA SUGGEST THAT DAYTIME
HEATING HAS NEARLY ERODED REMAINING CAP ALONG DRY LINE AND OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY WITH EXPLOSIVE TSTM DEVELOPMENT ANTICIPATED BY 21-22Z. 
GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE
HAIL APPEAR LIKELY.

WHILE DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WAS MARGINAL /30-35 KTS/ ON THE 18Z
OUN SOUNDING...PROFILER/VAD DATA INDICATE THAT MID-LEVEL WIND FIELDS
ARE INCREASING FROM THE W OVER THE CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS.  IT
APPEARS THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE WITH
STORMS THAT CAN INITIATE ALONG THE DRY LINE...MATURE AND THEN CROSS
OR MOVE NEARLY ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER NWRN AND N-CNTRL OK. 
THIS TORNADO THREAT WILL ALSO EXIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING ALONG NARROW INSTABILITY AXIS INTO SWRN KS.

MORE ISOLATED STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FROM SWRN OK INTO NWRN
AND PERHAPS W-CNTRL TX FROM NEAR SECONDARY TRIPLE POINT SWD ALONG
DRY LINE.  THOUGH DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR DECREASES WITH SWD
EXTENT...THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL.

FINALLY...ONGOING MCS OVER NERN OK INTO NWRN AR HAS ORGANIZED A COLD
POOL SUFFICIENTLY THAT IT HAS STARTED TO FORWARD PROPAGATE THIS
AFTERNOON.  INFLUX OF MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY FROM THE SW
SHOULD MAINTAIN THIS COMPLEX SEWD ACROSS FAR ERN OK AND AR WITH A
CONTINUED THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

..MEAD.. 04/24/2006