[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 121958
SWODY1
SPC AC 121956

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0256 PM CDT WED APR 12 2006

VALID 122000Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ...

...NRN/CENTRAL OH INTO NWRN PA...
AREA OF SHALLOW CONVECTION CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AT 20Z INTO FAR
SWRN ONTARIO AHEAD OF STRONG UPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
COLD FRONT. INSTABILITY HAS REMAINED MINIMAL TODAY AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 50S AND SBCAPE AOB 500
J/KG.  HOWEVER...CONTINUED HEATING AND SMALL INCREASES IN SURFACE
DEW POINTS INTO NERN OH SHOULD ALLOW ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP GRADUALLY
SWD ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS NRN OH THROUGH THE EVENING. SHEAR
REMAINS QUITE STRONG...DESPITE VEERED/SWLY SURFACE WINDS...AND
SHOULD SUPPORT ORGANIZATION INTO SMALL LINES OR LOW-TOPPED
SUPERCELLS.  WIND DAMAGE AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL SHOULD BE
PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS AS THIS HIGH-BASED ACTIVITY MOVES ENEWD
THROUGH THE EARLY TO MID EVENING.  AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL ALSO
REMAIN POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE ERIE WHERE LOW LEVEL
HODOGRAPHS REMAIN LARGE.  

...NRN AR...
MODEST SURFACE CONVERGENCE CONTINUES ALONG STALLED SURFACE FRONT
EXTENDING E-W ACROSS NRN AR/FAR SRN MO THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY MLCAPE HAS INCREASED TO NEAR 1000 J/KG WITH WEAK CAP..
COMBINATION OF WHICH IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEAL EFFECTIVE BULK-SHEAR OF 35
KT...MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WITHIN THIS AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY.  THUS...STRONGER STORMS MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF
ISOLATED/BRIEF DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL THREAT.  ANY SEVERE
THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER DARK.

...NRN MN...
ANOTHER STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS WELL DEFINED MOVING ACROSS
SERN MANITOBA AND FAR WRN ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON.  COLD AIR ALOFT
AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY/STEEP LAPSE RATES MAY SUPPORT HAIL WITH THE
STRONGER CORES...THOUGH OVERALL SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED TO REMAIN
MINIMAL.

..EVANS.. 04/12/2006