[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 130052
SWODY1
SPC AC 130050

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0750 PM CDT WED APR 12 2006

VALID 130100Z - 131200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE BROAD AREA OF HIGH
HEIGHTS ACROSS S-CENTRAL CONUS...GREAT PLAINS AND CENTRAL/SRN
ROCKIES.  CUT-OFF UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MENDER ERRATICALLY
OFFSHORE CA.  STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE
CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER SRN ONT AND ERN GREAT LAKES REGION -- IS FCST
TO MOVE EWD OVER PORTIONS SWRN QUE AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION
OVERNIGHT.  ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM NWRN NY TO
CENTRAL OH...SRN IL...SRN MO...BECOMING QUASISTATIONARY FROM OZARKS
WSWWD ACROSS NRN OK.  FRONT SHOULD MOVE EWD ACROSS MID ATLANTIC
REGION THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD...WHILE LIFTING NWD OVER CENTRAL
PLAINS AND MO.

...UPPER OH VALLEY REGION...
LINE OF SCATTERED TSTMS -- SOME OF WHICH REMAIN AT LEAST MARGINALLY
SEVERE...SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD ACROSS REMAINDER SERN OH...WRN
PA...AND NRN PANHANDLE OF WV.  ACTIVITY FARTHER NE ACROSS WRN
UPSTATE NY HAS WEAKENED IN MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT...A TREND THAT
SHOULD SHIFT SWD WITH TIME THROUGH CONVECTIVE BAND.  SFC ANALYSIS
SHOWS THETAE DECREASING WITH EWD EXTENT ACROSS REGION...ANOTHER
TENDENCY THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH REMAINDER EVENING...DESPITE
NARROW PLUME OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOIST ADVECTION JUST AHEAD OF THIS
ACTIVITY.  AS RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS DIABATICALLY
COOLS...DECOUPLING SFC LAYER...INFLOW REGION SHOULD BECOME
PROGRESSIVELY MORE ELEVATED AND LESS UNSTABLE. THEREFORE...SEVERE
POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FROM N TO S...AND WITH TIME.

...NRN AR...
ISOLATED CLUSTER OF STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE MULTICELLS IS
EVIDENT IN ENVIRONMENT OF WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW...BUT CONSIDERABLE
VEERING OF WINDS WITH HEIGHT.  ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE TO BACKBUILD
ALONG WRN EDGE FOR ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS...BEFORE DIMINISHING WITH
LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING IN SFC-BASED INFLOW LAYER.  HAIL/GUSTS NEAR
SEVERE LEVELS REMAINS POSSIBLE BUT THREAT SHOULD DROP MARKEDLY AFTER
ABOUT 13/03Z.

..EDWARDS.. 04/13/2006