[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 101945
SWODY1
SPC AC 101944

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0244 PM CDT MON APR 10 2006

VALID 102000Z - 111200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...NRN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH NRN MN...

MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS WITH DEWPOINTS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ADVANCING NEWD THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES EXIST ABOVE THE MODEST LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH STRONG SURFACE HEATING WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 500 TO 800 J/KG ACROSS PARTS OF
SERN MT...NWRN SD AND SWRN ND. AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS NEWD
THIS AFTERNOON...A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE EWD INTO THE NRN HIGH
PLAINS. THE ATMOSPHERE IS STILL CAPPED IN MUCH OF THIS REGION AS OF
MID AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...HEATING AND BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AS WELL
AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD
CONTRIBUTE TO HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS. VERTICAL SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF
UPDRAFT ROTATION AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL PROMOTE A THREAT FOR
HAIL. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYERS
ALSO SUGGEST ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY ACCOMPANY SOME STORMS
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP FARTHER NE ACROSS
NRN ND INTO NRN MN LATER TONIGHT IN ZONE OF STRENGTHENING WARM
ADVECTION WITH A THREAT OF ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY DO NOT APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT
MORE THAN LOW PROBABILITIES.

...SRN FL...

ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED
WITH MULTICELL STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE EXTREME SRN TIP OF FL
INTO THE FL KEYS THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF THIS AREA IS IN THE PROCESS
OF BEING OVERTURNED...AND THE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH WITHIN THE NEXT
1 TO 2 HOURS.

..DIAL.. 04/10/2006