[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 110039
SWODY1
SPC AC 110037

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0737 PM CDT MON APR 10 2006

VALID 110100Z - 111200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...ND INTO NRN MN...

RECENT TRENDS IN LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE TSTMS INCREASING IN
COVERAGE ACROSS WRN ND INTO FAR NWRN SD IN ADVANCE OF SHORT WAVE
TROUGH LIFTING NEWD THROUGH WY INTO SERN MT.  THIS ACTIVITY IS
OCCURRING ALONG A COLD FRONT OR INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NEAR
THE MT/ND BORDER SEWD TO LOW PRESSURE OVER N-CNTRL SD. DESPITE
RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY-LAYER CONDITIONS...DAYTIME HEATING COUPLED
WITH HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE TROUGH HAVE
CONTRIBUTED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF STEEP LAPSE RATES AND WEAK
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY /REF. 00Z RAP SOUNDING/.

THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS WRN AND
CNTRL ND WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND/OR
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

FARTHER TO THE E...00Z ABR SOUNDING SHOWED A WELL DEFINED ELEVATED
MIXED LAYER WITH A STRONG CAP AT THE BASE OF THIS FEATURE.  GIVEN
THAT BOUNDARY-LAYER WILL SLOWLY COOL OVERNIGHT...DEEP MOIST
CONVECTION APPEARS UNLIKELY S OF SURFACE LOW ALONG COLD FRONT INTO
CNTRL SD.  BETTER NOCTURNAL POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE N OF WARM FRONT
/CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM THE SURFACE LOW EWD THROUGH SERN ND INTO
WRN LAKE SUPERIOR/ WHERE INCREASING LOW-LEVEL WAA MAY SUPPORT
ELEVATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT.

GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OBSERVED ON
THE 00Z SOUNDINGS...THREAT FOR SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL
EXIST FROM N-CNTRL/NERN ND EWD ACROSS NRN MN OVERNIGHT.

..MEAD.. 04/11/2006