[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 101223
SWODY1
SPC AC 101222

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0722 AM CDT MON APR 10 2006

VALID 101300Z - 111200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS LARGE SCALE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES...WITH UPPER RIDGE CONTINUING OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MS VALLEY. ONE STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
CURRENTLY OVER ID/UT.  THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO ROTATE EASTWARD
INTO PARTS OF MT/WY AND THE DAKOTAS THIS EVENING.  SURFACE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO DEEPEN IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE OVER WESTERN
SD...RESULTING IN STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS.  THIS WILL HELP TO DRAW MEAGER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INTO REGION.  STRONG DAYTIME HEATING  FROM THE BLACK HILLS REGION
INTO EASTERN MT WILL PROVIDE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY /MLCAPE BELOW 1000 J/KG/.  SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN THIS REGION BY LATE
AFTERNOON.  COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT...STEEP LAPSE RATES...AND
SUFFICIENT WIND FIELDS WILL POSE A RISK OF ISOLATED STRONG STORMS
CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.  ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TODAY.  ISOLATED STRONG STORMS MAY SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD
INTO PARTS OF ND/MN OVERNIGHT WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF HAIL.

ELSEWHERE...NO ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TODAY.

..HART/CROSBIE.. 04/10/2006