[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 101632
SWODY1
SPC AC 101630

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CDT MON APR 10 2006

VALID 101630Z - 111200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...NORTHERN PLAINS...

WHILE PRIMARY TROUGH REMAINS ALONG OR JUST OFF W COAST A BROAD SWLY
FLOW WITH EMBEDDED S/WVS EXTENDS EWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS.  ONE
IMPULSE CURRENTLY NRN ROCKIES WITH UPSTREAM IMPULSE MOVING INLAND
SRN CA THIS AFTERNOON.

SURFACE LOW NERN WY THIS AM WITH A STRONG SLY LOW LEVEL JET TO THE E
OVER THE PLAINS.  LOW WILL MOVE NEWD ACROSS DAKOTAS TOWARD NWRN MN
BY LATE TONIGHT. VERY LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM...HOWEVER
THE COMBINATION OF STEEP LAPSE RATES...8C/KM OR GREATER AND LARGE
SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW AND S/WV TROUGH DOES SUPPORT
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL BY THIS EVENING.

HIGH CLOUDS CURRENTLY WRN DAKOTAS EXPECTED TO ADVECT EWD AND ALLOW
FULL HEATING THIS AFTERNOON.  BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 70S AND DEWPOINTS MID 40S MINIMAL CINH AND MLCAPES TO 500
J/KG WOULD BE AVAILABLE  NWRN SD/SWRN ND.  THIS WOULD SUPPORT
DEVELOPMENT OF HIGH BASED CONVECTION IN AREA OF BEST LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. WHILE THERMODYNAMICS WILL BE MARGINAL...THERE WOULD BE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS AND MARGINAL HAIL THIS REGION THRU
THE EVENING.  STORMS EXPECTED TO BECOME ELEVATED OVERNIGHT AS THEY
MOVE ACROSS ND INTO NRN MN WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY CONTINUING RISK OF MARGINAL HAIL AS FAR E AS
NWRN MN.



...SRN FL...

HAVE ADDED LOW PROBS OF HAIL AS AIRMASS REMAINS UNSTABLE WITH
RELATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.  SHEAR LESS THAN 25 KTS
SUPPORT MULTI-CELLS WITH STRONGER UPDRAFTS SUPPORTING SOME HAIL
POTENTIAL UNTIL THIS EVENING.

..HALES/GRAMS.. 04/10/2006