[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 090515
SWODY1
SPC AC 090514

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1214 AM CDT SUN APR 09 2006

VALID 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER S FL...

...SYNOPSIS...

NRN STREAM MID-LEVEL TROUGH FROM QUEBEC SWD TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
COAST WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...WHILE WEAKER SRN STREAM TROUGH WILL MORE SLOWLY SHIFT
EWD ACROSS THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH FL INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC. 
IN THE W...NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH WILL EVOLVE OVER THE PACIFIC NW AND
GREAT BASIN...WITH AN ASSOCIATED VORTICITY MAXIMUM/JET STREAK MOVING
THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH NEWD INTO NV/UT.

IN THE LOW-LEVELS...COLD FRONT INITIALLY OVER THE NRN FL PENINSULA
WILL PUSH SWD THROUGH REMAINDER OF THE PENINSULA TODAY...EVENTUALLY
INTO THE FL STRAITS LATE TONIGHT.  IN THE W...SURFACE LOW OVER NV
WILL DEVELOP NEWD INTO NRN HIGH PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF EVOLVING UPPER
TROUGH WHILE TRAILING PACIFIC FRONT PUSHES EWD INTO THE GREAT BASIN.


...S FL...

09/00Z UPPER AIR AND CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE
PRESENCE OF A VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.  THIS MOISTURE COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY TODAY
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WITH MLCAPES INCREASING TO 1500-2000 J/KG.

W-E ORIENTED BANDS OF TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE ONSET OF
FORECAST OVER THE CNTRL PENINSULA WITHIN MOIST...PRE-FRONTAL WARM
SECTOR.  DESTABILIZATION OF INFLOW AIR MASS ALONG WITH 30 METER
HEIGHT FALLS ALONG SRN FRINGE OF SRN STREAM TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA SHOULD SUPPORT STORM INTENSIFICATION LATER TODAY...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS CONTINUING INTO THIS EVENING.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT VERTICAL SHEAR WILL NOT BE
PARTICULARLY STRONG OWING TO THE VEERED LOW-LEVEL WINDS AND ONLY
30-40 KT FLOW IN THE MID-LEVELS.  NONETHELESS...THE MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS SEVERE HAIL WITH THE
MOST INTENSE STORMS.

..MEAD/GUYER.. 04/09/2006