[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 091242
SWODY1
SPC AC 091241

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0741 AM CDT SUN APR 09 2006

VALID 091300Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SOUTH FL...

...SYNOPSIS...
PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT THROUGH THE DAY/EARLY EVENING WILL RESIDE
ACROSS SOUTHERN FL...WHERE ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG/SOUTH OF COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA. IN THE
WEST...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN/CENTRAL CA AND ORE/WA INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST IN
ASSOCIATION WITH UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST.
OTHERWISE...DRY/STABLE CONDITIONS WILL PRECLUDE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS.

...SOUTH FL...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS CONTINUE THIS MORNING ALONG/SOUTH OF
COLD FRONT ROUGHLY BISECTING THE FL PENINSULA AND ADJACENT COASTAL
WATERS. AS THE FRONT SLOWLY PROGRESSES SOUTHWARD...SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FURTHER INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS SOUTH
FL...WITH POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. MODEST INSOLATION COUPLED WITH A RATHER
MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL YIELD MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG BY
THE AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTH FL...PER MODIFIED 12Z MIAMI/KEY
WEST/TAMPA BAY MORNING RAOBS. ALTHOUGH SOMEWHAT NEGATED BY MODEST
VERTICAL SHEAR/UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES WITHIN THE AMBIENT WARM
SECTOR...THERMODYNAMIC CHARACTERISTICS WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL
FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND/OR LARGE HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

..GUYER/HART.. 04/09/2006