[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 081944
SWODY1
SPC AC 081942

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0242 PM CDT SAT APR 08 2006

VALID 082000Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST
STATES...

...SERN STATES...
EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT EXTENDED
FROM SERN VA WSWWD THROUGH WRN NC/SC TO NERN GA...AND THEN SWWD
ACROSS CENTRAL GA/SERN AL TO OVER THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO.  PRIMARY
FOCI FOR ONGOING AND ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO BE SRN
EXTENT OF COLD FRONT...NOW LOCATED OVER SERN AL/WRN FL
PANHANDLE...AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MOVING E/SE
ACROSS ERN CAROLINAS AND SRN GA/FL PANHANDLE INTO NRN FL.  WARM
SECTOR AIR MASS WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE INTO THE EVENING...WITH
GREATEST INSTABILITY /MLCAPE 1000-2000 J/KG/ EXTENDING ACROSS SRN
SC/SRN GA/FAR SERN AL/FL PANHANDLE AND NRN FL. 

STRONG CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EWD
REACHING THE SRN ATLANTIC COAST BY 12Z SUNDAY. LARGE SCALE ASCENT
IN ADVANCE OF THIS TROUGH AND ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE
VICINITY OF A COUPLE OF FRONTAL WAVES...NOW LOCATED OVER SRN AL/SRN
GA...AND BOUNDARIES WILL MAINTAIN DEEP MOIST CONVECTION WITHIN
UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR.  SUPERCELLS AND LINES/BOWS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN LIKELY GIVEN STRONG DEEP LAYER AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WITHIN
MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.  HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE LIKELY
WITHIN ENTIRE WARM SECTOR.  GREATEST TORNADO THREAT EXPECTED TO BE
ACROSS FAR SERN AL/FL PANHANDLE EWD THROUGH SRN GA/NRN FL TO SRN SC
WHERE INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN THE GREATEST...AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
VECTORS ARE ORIENTED MORE NORMAL TO THE BOUNDARIES ALLOWING FOR
DISCRETE STORMS.

THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MID-LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE BAND AND COLD FRONT MOVE INTO
NRN FL WHERE EFFECTIVE SHEAR/INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR
ORGANIZED STORMS.

..PETERS.. 04/08/2006