[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 051242
SWODY1
SPC AC 051240

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0740 AM CDT WED APR 05 2006

VALID 051300Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SD AND NEB
INTO FAR NWRN IA...

...NRN PLAINS...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE INCREASING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT AS SLY LLJ INTENSIFIES AHEAD OF POTENT
SYSTEM NOW MOVING ACROSS THE WRN U.S.  H85 DEW POINTS ARE FORECAST
TO INCREASE INTO THE 8C-12C RANGE WITH AXIS OF MAXIMUM VALUES
EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY NWWD INTO CENTRAL/WRN SD BY
LATE TONIGHT.  LOW PRESSURE FROM THE SURFACE THRU H85 WILL DEVELOP
EWD INTO WRN NEB/WRN SD LATER TONIGHT...WITH INCREASING CONVERGENCE
AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT UNDER STRONG UPPER DIFFLUENCE SUPPORTING
WIDESPREAD ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING LATE THIS EVENING. 
DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR OVER THE ERN WY MOUNTAINS AND
THE BLACK HILLS...WITH AN ISOLATED THREAT OF LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING
WINDS EWD TOWARDS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.  HOWEVER...PRIMARY SEVERE
THREAT IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD SD/NRN NEB AFTER DARK.  FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE MUCAPE FROM 1000-1500 J/KG WITH 40-45 KT
EFFECTIVE SHEAR...SUGGESTING ELEVATED SUPERCELLS WITHIN BROADER MCS.
 LARGE HAIL WILL BE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT...THOUGH ISOLATED DAMAGING
WINDS MAY OCCUR.

...WEST TX...
DRY LINE WILL BECOME BETTER DEFINED TODAY AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
DEEPENS AND OVERSPREADS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL TX/OK AND STRONG
HEATING/MIXING OCCURS OVER FAR WEST TX.  FORECAST HIGHS APPROACHING
90F OVER THE WEST TX PLAINS AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE MAY OVERCOME
WHAT IS INITIALLY STRONG CAPPING LATER TODAY.  OTHER ISOLATED STORMS
MAY FORM OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF SWRN TX/FAR SERN NM.  4KM WRF-NMM IS
MOST AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING DEEP MOIST CONVECTION OVER FAR SWRN TX
INTO THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS...THOUGH 06Z NAM BRIEFLY CONVECTS OVER
THIS SMALL AREA BETWEEN 00-03Z.  SHOULD A STORM INITIATE...STRONG
INSTABILITY...VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND 40-50 KT OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT STRONG/DAMAGING GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL FROM
HIGH-BASED STORMS THROUGH A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET.  POTENTIAL
APPEARS TOO CONDITIONAL ATTM TO WARRANT MORE THAN LOW SEVERE
PROBABILITIES.

..EVANS/LEVIT.. 04/05/2006