[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 051614
SWODY1
SPC AC 051612

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1112 AM CDT WED APR 05 2006

VALID 051630Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS ERN UT/WRN CO NWD
ACROSS WY INTO SERN MT AND THEN EWD ACROSS PARTS OF NEB/SD...

...SYNOPSIS...
STRONG/COLD UPPER SYSTEM CURRENTLY MOVING INLAND SWRN U.S. WILL BE
OVER CENTRAL/SRN ROCKIES BY LATER TONIGHT. DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
NWRN UT WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWD THRU CENTRAL AZ AT
15Z WILL FOCUS DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. 
LOW WILL CONTINUE DEEPENING NEWD INTO WRN WY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WHILE A NEW LOW DEVELOPS LEE OF CENTRAL ROCKIES AND MOVES
INTO WRN NEB LATER TONIGHT.  THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DRIVE NEWD
ACROSS WY/WRN CO INTO WRN NM THIS AFTERNOON EMERGING INTO HIGH
PLAINS LATER TONIGHT.

...CENTRAL AND NRN ROCKIES...
WHILE ACTUAL INSTABILITY WILL BE TYPICALLY WEAK DUE TO LIMITED
SURFACE MOISTURE THIS AREA AHEAD OF STRONG COLD FRONT OTHER
PARAMETERS EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A THREAT OF SEVERE
CONVECTIVE WINDS TO UPGRADE THIS AREA TO A SLIGHT RISK. THE
COMBINATION OF NEAR ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES ...EXIT REGION OF A VERY
STRONG UPPER JET MAX MOVING INTO 4-CORNERS AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTENSE FRONTAL LIFT WILL GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES INTO WRN WY/CO. 
COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS ALOFT AND CONVECTIVE CONTRIBUTION
EXPECTED TO GENERATE POTENTIAL DAMAGING WINDS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
MOVE NEWD ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY THIS EVENING PRIOR TO
SOME WEAKENING LEE SLOPES.

FURTHER N INTO SERN MT...INCREASING ELY/SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND A
LITTLE GREATER MOISTURE AHEAD OF DEEPENING SURFACE LOW AND
FRONT...MLCAPES COULD CLIMB TO NEAR 1000 J/KG. VEERING HODOGRAPHS
INCREASE POTENTIAL OF ROTATING STORMS DEVELOPING N AND E OF BIG
HORNS WITH PRIMARY THREAT OF LARGE HAIL. WIND THREAT WOULD INCREASE
INTO THIS AREA DURING THE EVENING AS THE STRONG FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE SW.

...NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...
GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FEED RAPIDLY NWD THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD
WITH SUFFICIENT CINH TO LIMIT THREAT OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION UNTIL
AFTER 00Z.  WARM ADVECTION AND UPWARD MOTION AS THE STRONG DIFFLUENT
JET MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATER TONIGHT SHOULD AID IN
DEVELOPMENT OF PRIMARILY ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS EWD ACROSS SD/NEB. 
WITH ELEVATED CAPES IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE. THIS WILL ENHANCE PRIMARILY LARGE
HAIL THREAT OVERNIGHT.

...SWRN TX...
STRONG SURFACE HEATING WILL WEAKEN CAP ON WESTERN EDGE OF MOISTURE 
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP OFF
HIGHER TERRAIN OF SWRN TX.  WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50 KT AND
STEEP LAPSE RATES ANY STORM THAT CAN DEVELOP WOULD BE POTENTIALLY
SEVERE WITH PRIMARILY A LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL.  THIS THREAT COULD
CONTINUE AFTER DARK AS LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES TO 30-40 KTS ACROSS
WRN TX.

..HALES/TAYLOR.. 04/05/2006