[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 221626
SWODY1
SPC AC 221624

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1124 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2005

VALID 221630Z - 231200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE
ERI 30 ESE MFD 20 NE IND 20 SW DNV 30 SSE BRL 25 ENE OTM 15 SSW DBQ
MKE 30 WSW MBS 75 NE MTC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 ESE PSX 20 SW ESF
35 W JAN 40 WNW CBM 25 N MSL 20 WNW BNA 30 NNW HOP 25 NNE UNO UMN 20
SE END 40 N CDS 40 SE ROW 35 SSE ELP ...CONT... 85 S GBN 10 S PHX 10
SE FLG 20 SW BCE 50 NW 4HV VEL 50 NNW CAG 40 NNW LAR 10 W BFF 45 SW
MHN 35 SSW EAR 10 WNW BIE 45 NW LWD 20 S LSE 40 NNE GRB 15 NE ANJ
...CONT... 45 NE EFK PSM 25 S BDL 25 WNW EWR HGR 30 NNE CHO 10 SE
RIC 55 E ECG.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW DLN 35 SSW LVM
40 SW COD 25 NW BPI 20 S MLD 15 NW ENV 15 SSE EKO 45 NNE BAM 50 NNW
OWY 50 WNW SUN 25 SW DLN.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES
AND MID MS VALLEY...

...GREAT LAKES REGION INTO MID MS VALLEY...
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM UPPER MI INTO EASTERN NEB.  PRIMARY SURFACE
BAROCLINIC ZONE IS WELL AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...FROM CENTRAL WI INTO
NORTHERN MO.  SURFACE AIR MASS ALONG AND EAST OF THE BOUNDARY IS
QUITE MOIST/UNSTABLE WITH STRONG DAYTIME HEATING OCCURRING. 
AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES IN THIS REGION ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND
2000 J/KG...WITH SOME WEAK CAPPING LIKELY TO REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY.  PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG AND SLIGHTLY BEHIND SURFACE FRONT FROM EASTERN IA INTO
NORTHERN IL/SOUTHERN WI.  THESE STORMS WILL HAVE A RISK OF LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING AS THEY SPREAD
EASTWARD INTO PARTS OF LOWER MI/NORTHERN IND.  WEAKENING LOW LEVEL
WINDS AND INCREASING CAP STRENGTH WITH TIME...SUGGEST THAT SEVERE
THREAT WILL LIKELY DIMINISH BY 06Z.

...NM/CO...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER AZ WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD
TODAY...SPREADING UVVS INTO PARTS OF NM/CO THROUGH THE DAY.  PLUME
OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF TROUGH...COUPLED WITH STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT...SUGGEST THE
POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL OVER THE
MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS OF THIS AREA.  THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH RAPIDLY
AFTER SUNSET.

..HART/CROSBIE.. 09/22/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.