[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 221252
SWODY1
SPC AC 221250

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0750 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2005

VALID 221300Z - 231200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW
ERI 10 SW CMH 35 NW EVV 15 NNW TBN 35 S EMP 30 SE SLN 15 N MHK 35
NNW IRK 20 NW MLI LNR 30 SW OSH 45 NNE MTC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW BML PSM 25 S
BDL 25 WNW EWR HGR 30 NNE CHO 10 SE RIC 20 NE ECG ...CONT... 15 NNE
GLS 20 SW ESF 35 W JAN 40 WNW CBM 25 N MSL 20 WNW BNA 30 NNW HOP 25
NNE UNO UMN 20 W BVO 60 N CDS 40 SE ROW 35 SSE ELP ...CONT... 25 SSE
YUM 65 E BLH 45 NE IGM 15 NE PGA 15 NNW CNY 40 WSW CAG 30 ENE CAG 25
N LAR 45 W BFF 40 SW MHN 40 SSW SUX 25 ESE MKT 40 NNE GRB 20 WSW
ANJ.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY INTO EARLY TONIGHT FROM
ERN KS TO LOWER MI/NW OH....

...LOWER MO VALLEY TO GREAT LAKES TODAY INTO EARLY TONIGHT...
A NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER ONTARIO WILL AMPLIFY AND MOVE EWD
TO QUEBEC...WHILE SEVERAL LOW AMPLITUDE SPEED MAXIMA MOVE EWD FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY IN A CONFLUENT FLOW REGIME. THIS
FLOW REGIME WILL SUPPORT EWD DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR THIS MORNING TO SRN QUEBEC...AND THE ENEWD MOTION OF A
SECONDARY LOW FROM ERN IA THIS MORNING TO LOWER MI THIS AFTERNOON. 
IN THE WAKE OF THESE LOWS...A SURFACE COLD FRONT / ALONG AN AXIS
FROM CENTRAL KS TO CENTRAL WI AS OF 12Z / WILL MOVE EWD/SEWD TO THE
SRN PLAINS/OH VALLEY/NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY FRIDAY.

SURFACE ANALYSES AND 12Z SOUNDINGS REVEAL BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS
OF 65-70 F OVER MO/IL. THIS MOISTURE IN CONJUNCTION WITH LOW-LEVEL
WAA WILL HELP MAINTAIN A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY
ACROSS SRN LOWER MI/NRN INDIANA/NRN OH...POSSIBLY REACHING WRN PA/NY
BY EARLY TONIGHT.  LOW-LEVEL WARMING/MOISTENING IN THE WAKE OF THIS
CONVECTION WILL RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE VALUES IN
EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG/  IN THE WARM SECTOR THIS AFTERNOON.  ADDITIONAL
STORMS MAY FORM ALONG THE COLD FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON WHERE
SURFACE HEATING AND ASCENT WEAKEN THE CAP.

THE STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IMMEDIATELY
ALONG AND ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT...WITH MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS ALONG THE BOUNDARY.  HOWEVER...MOST CONVECTION
WILL TEND TO EVOLVE INTO MORE LINEAR MODES GIVEN THE MARGINAL
VERTICAL SHEAR VECTORS ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE FRONT. ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL EVENTS CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS EVENING...BEFORE THE THREAT DIMINISHES TONIGHT.

..THOMPSON/JEWELL.. 09/22/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.