[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 141639
SWODY1
SPC AC 141638

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1138 AM CDT WED SEP 14 2005

VALID 141630Z - 151200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 N
MWL 25 NNE ABI 55 NE BGS 45 SSE LBB 10 NE LBB 40 NE PVW 45 NNE CDS
45 E CSM 20 S OKC 15 WNW ADM 35 N MWL.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE
PRX 15 NE BWD 30 WNW SJT 20 N MAF 50 WSW LBB 40 ESE CVS 30 WNW TCC
15 SE RTN 45 SSW LAA 35 SE LBL 15 E PNC 30 NE UNO 25 SE MDH 30 E OWB
55 ENE BWG 25 N CSV 40 W CHA 35 NE CBM 20 WNW GWO 40 SSE HOT 15 ENE
PRX.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE
CRE 20 WNW OAJ 25 SE ORF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CRE 15 ESE SOP 30 SE
EKN 45 WSW EKN 30 WNW HSS 20 NNE 0A8 15 NW LUL 30 WNW POE 25 ENE TPL
20 SW JCT 40 ESE P07 ...CONT... 60 WNW MRF 30 SSE GDP 25 N CNM 50 N
ROW 20 SSE ABQ 15 E FMN 10 NW 4BL 10 S CNY 25 WNW GJT 10 SSE CAG 30
SSE LAR 35 ESE CDR 10 SSW PIR 60 NE MBG 30 NNW JMS 35 E DVL 30 NE
GFK 20 NNW BJI 35 SE BJI 25 NE AXN 30 ENE BKX 25 ENE BUB 30 NE MCK
30 NW HLC 15 NE RSL 20 ENE SLN 15 SSW TOP 20 WSW JEF 10 SSW ALN 35
SE CGX 20 N GRR 10 E OSC ...CONT... 35 SSE HUL 20 ENE BDL 35 SSW
GON.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF NWRN TX AND
SOUTHWESTERN OK...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS ACROSS
THE MID SOUTH...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS COASTAL NC...

...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE SURFACE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO PRECEDE PRIMARY SYNOPTIC
COLD FRONT AND EXTENDS FROM OH INTO ERN KY/ERN TN AND THEN WWD
ACROSS NRN AL/NRN MS/CENTRAL AR/NWRN TX.  ERN PORTION OF THIS
BOUNDARY IS WEAKENING...WITH SRN PLAINS PORTION EXPECTED TO REMAIN
WELL DEFINED THIS AFTERNOON.  BROAD AXIS OF MID 60S DEW POINTS
PRECEDES THE COLD FRONT...WITH A VERY MOIST AIR MASS /SFC DEW PTS
AOA 70F/ PERSISTING WITHIN WARM SECTOR OVER THE SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS
RIVER VALLEY.  ALOFT SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE NEWD
ACROSS THE OH RIVER VALLEY AND THE MID SOUTH REGIONS TODAY...WHILE
SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE SRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.

...WRN TX INTO THE MID SOUTH...
AFOREMENTIONED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO BE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR
SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY...THOUGH RIDGING ALOFT
AND PERSISTENT CAP SUGGEST THIS WILL BE DRIVEN BY AFTERNOON HEATING.
 15Z SOUNDING FROM REECE/TX INDICATES CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE LOWER
90S MAY BE REQUIRED TO INITIATE DEEP MOIST CONVECTION NEAR THE
BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON.  GIVEN LARGE CLOUD-FREE AREA WITHIN
PSEUDO-WARM SECTOR ACROSS THIS REGION...CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES
SHOULD EASILY BE REACHED BETWEEN 3-5 PM OVER NWRN TX/SRN OK/NRN TX. 
MOST LIKELY REGION FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE LOCATED NEAR
TRIPLE POINT LOW AND ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER NWRN TX/SWRN OK. 
OTHER DEVELOPMENT CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED ANYWHERE NEAR THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY EXTENDING INTO THE MS RIVER VALLEY/MID SOUTH REGION LATER
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN QUITE STRONG OVER WRN PORTION OF SLGT
RISK /ESPECIALLY GIVEN EXPECTED AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY OVER THE
REGION/ WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR FORECAST TO BE IN EXCESS OF 50 KT. 
SHEAR WILL BE WEAKER EWD INTO THE MID SOUTH...THOUGH STILL SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED LINES/MULTICELL CLUSTERS.  LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD ACCOMPANY STRONGER STORMS THROUGH THE MID
EVENING...THOUGH STORMS MAY EVOLVE INTO BOW
ECHOES/FORWARD-PROPAGATING CLUSTERS.  SUPERCELLS OVER WRN TX AND SRN
OK/NRN TX MAY PRODUCE VERY LARGE/DAMAGING HAIL AS WELL AS DAMAGING
WINDS. ENHANCED LOW LEVEL ROTATION AND A FEW TORNADOES ARE STILL
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT AND WITH CELLS
PROPAGATING ALONG SFC OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NEARLY ALIGNED WITH EXPECTED
ELY STORM MOTIONS.

ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY INCREASE INTO ONE OR MORE MCSS TONIGHT AND
OVERSPREAD MUCH OF OK/NRN TX AND SPREAD INTO FAR SRN MO/AR. 
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BECOME INCREASINGLY ELEVATED AWAY FROM THE HIGH
PLAINS...WITH PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL AFTER 05Z.

...COASTAL NC...
PRESENCE OF INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH AND CONTINUED AFTERNOON HEATING
MAY INCREASE THUNDERSTORM THREAT AND LOW LEVEL ROTATION WITH BANDS
ROTATING AROUND OPHELIA.  THUS...WILL CONTINUE SMALL SLGT RISK AND
TORNADO PROBABILITIES WITHIN FAVORED N-NE QUADRANT OF OPHELIA.

...OH RIVER VALLEY INTO GREAT LAKES...
APPEARS PRIMARY FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG
ACTUAL SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDING FROM LOWER MI INTO CENTRAL
IL.  LAPSE RATES REMAIN RATHER WEAK AHEAD OF THE FRONT. 
HOWEVER...AFTERNOON HEATING AND RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IN
PLACE SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH THE EVENING.

..EVANS/JEWELL.. 09/14/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.