[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 141437
SWODY1
SPC AC 141436

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0936 AM CDT WED SEP 14 2005

VALID 141300Z - 151200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WNW
MWL 25 NNE ABI 55 NE BGS 45 SSE LBB 15 NNE LBB 40 ESE AMA 45 WNW CSM
30 NNE CSM 35 S END 40 SW TUL 35 W MKO 20 N MLC 15 SE MLC 40 ENE DUA
45 NNW DAL 40 WNW MWL.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW
PRX 15 NE BWD 30 WNW SJT 20 N MAF 50 WSW LBB 40 ESE CVS 30 WNW TCC
15 SE RTN 45 SSW LAA 35 SE LBL 30 NW BVO 25 SE TBN MDH 30 E OWB 55
ENE BWG 25 N CSV 40 W CHA 35 NE CBM 25 E GLH ELD 35 SSW PRX.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE
CRE 20 WNW OAJ 25 SE ORF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 W MRF 50 SE GDP 30
ENE CNM 45 ENE ROW 15 SSW LVS 35 SE DRO 10 NW 4BL 10 S CNY 25 WNW
GJT 10 SSE CAG 30 SSE LAR 35 ESE CDR 20 SE PIR 45 NNW ABR 25 W FAR
40 E FAR 20 SW AXN 25 ENE BKX 25 ENE BUB 30 NE MCK 30 NW HLC 15 NE
RSL 20 ENE SLN 15 SSW TOP 20 WSW JEF 30 NW STL 10 SSE MMO 30 NNE MKG
15 NE APN ...CONT... 40 SSE HUL 30 NE POU 15 NW HSS 20 NW RMG TCL 25
WNW MEI 10 SW HEZ 35 N LFK 35 NNE ACT 35 SW BWD 25 NW DRT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CRE 20 NNW FAY 30 NE
ORF.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF NW TEXAS AND
SRN/CNTRL OK...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM W TX ENE INTO THE LWR
TN/OH VLYS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER ERN NC...

CORRECTED TO ADD SEVERE PROBABILITIES IN COASTAL NC

...SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD...LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF THE
NATION THIS PERIOD AS EXISTING UPPER RIDGE IS SUPPRESSED S INTO THE
NRN GULF OF MEXICO.  ACTIVE SRN BRANCH JET WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A
PRIME FACTOR IN DETERMINING THE LOCATION AND INTENSITY OF SEVERE
WEATHER THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

SATELLITE AND COMPOSITE RADAR DATA SUGGEST THAT A WEAK IMPULSE IN
THE SRN STREAM ATTM EXTENDS FROM NRN KS SWD INTO NW TX.  A MUCH
STRONGER DISTURBANCE IS APPARENT UPSTREAM OVER WRN AZ. THE LATTER
FEATURE SHOULD MOVE INTO CNTRL NM BY THIS EVENING AS LEAD IMPULSE
LIFTS NE AND WEAKENS OVER THE MID MS/LWR OH VLY.

AT THE SURFACE...NRN PART OF COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDING FROM MI TO SE
MO TO THE TX PANHANDLE SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING SE ACROSS THE LWR
OH/MID MS VLY TODAY.  WRN PART OF BOUNDARY SHOULD BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY FROM THE LBB AREA ENE INTO CNTRL OK.

...SRN PLNS TO SRN OZARKS...
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING OVER PARTS OF OK AND
KS THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO CONTINUED E/NE
ADVANCE OF SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH.  MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WILL BE ELEVATED ABOVE COLD FRONT AND/OR
PREFRONTAL STORM OUTFLOW.  WITH TIME...HOWEVER...THIS ACTIVITY
LIKELY WILL BE AUGMENTED BY SURFACE-BASED DEVELOPMENT OVER SRN/ERN
OK AND CNTRL/SRN AR.  AMPLE /35-40 KT/ DEEP WLY SHEAR... INSTABILITY
/MUCAPE TO 2000 J PER KG/...AND MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 F/ WILL
BE PRESENT FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL/HIGH WIND AND POSSIBLY A
TORNADO.  THESE STORMS MAY ORGANIZE INTO ONE OR TWO CLUSTERS THAT
PERSIST INTO THE NIGHT AS LLJ STRENGTHENS DOWNSTREAM FROM
APPROACHING NM IMPULSE.

FARTHER W...A SECOND AREA OF SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT
EXPECTED TO FOCUS IN ZONE OF SUSTAINED UPSLOPE FLOW N OF SHALLOW
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES/FRONT IN NW TX AND THE SRN TX PANHANDLE. 
INITIATION IN THIS REGION MAY AT FIRST BE TIED TO SURFACE HEATING
...BUT IN TIME WILL BE ASSISTED BY LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED
WITH NM TROUGH.

COMBINATION OF RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL YIELD A VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MUCAPE OF
3000 TO POSSIBLY 4000 J/KG.  COUPLED WITH 500 MB WSWLY FLOW THAT
WILL INCREASE FROM 30-35 KTS TO AROUND 50 KTS...SETUP SHOULD SUPPORT
A FEW LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WIND.  IN
ADDITION...ELY LOW LEVEL FLOW N OF STALLED BOUNDARIES WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO ENLARGED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND AN ENHANCED THREAT
FOR TORNADOES AS LONG AS STORMS ARE ABLE TO REMAIN DISCRETE.

WITH TIME...STORM COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BECOME RATHER WIDESPREAD IN
MDT RISK AREA IN RESPONSE TO DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND INCREASING
LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT.  ACTIVITY LIKELY WILL CONSOLIDATE
INTO A LARGE MCS THAT SHOULD MOVE/DEVELOP GENERALLY E/SE ALONG THE
RED RIVER VLY...AND WILL EXTEND A THREAT FOR SEVERE THROUGH AT LEAST
LATE TONIGHT.

...MID MS/LWR OH/TN VLYS...
AFOREMENTIONED LEAD SRN STREAM IMPULSE WILL GRAZE PARTS OF THE MID
MS/LWR TN VLYS TODAY AS SYSTEM LIFTS NE TOWARD THE GRT LKS.  COLD
FRONT MOVING SE ACROSS REGION WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR DIURNALLY
ENHANCED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.  SCATTERED ONGOING STORMS AND
ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER WILL HINDER DESTABILIZATION IN SOME AREAS.
THE GREATEST INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM
SRN MO TO SRN IND...AND S/E OF OLD STORM OUTFLOW FROM WRN/MIDDLE TN
INTO NRN MS AND NW AL. MUCAPE SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 1000 IN
CLOUDIER SPOTS TO AROUND 2000 J/KG ELSEWHERE.

PROXIMITY OF SRN BRANCH JET WILL MAINTAIN 30-35 KT DEEP WSWLY SHEAR
ACROSS REGION. WHILE LOW LEVEL INFLOW WILL BE WEAK... MODERATE
UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR COUPLED WITH GLANCING INFLUENCE OF UPR SYSTEM
AND CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SHOULD PROVE
SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW SUSTAINED STORM CLUSTERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
SUPERCELLS.  BOTH HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND MAY OCCUR WITH THE
STRONGER ACTIVITY THROUGH THIS EVENING.

...ERN NC...
HRCN OPHELIA APPEARS TO BE MOVING NWD ATTM AS UPR RIDGE TO ITS N
CONTINUES E INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE SYSTEM SHOULD TURN MORE NE LATER
TODAY IN AGREEMENT WITH TPC AND MODEL FORECASTS.  WIND FIELDS
CONDUCIVE TO MINI SUPERCELLS ARE ALREADY PRESENT ALONG THE SRN NC
CST...WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR ABOVE 50 KTS.  FAVORABLE KINEMATIC
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SPREAD NWD ALONG THE CST TO THE VA CAPES BY
TONIGHT.

WARM CORE NATURE OF TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL NATURALLY LIMIT INTENSITY
OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN ASSOCIATED OUTER CONFLUENCE BANDS.  BUT
FRICTIONALLY-INDUCED INVERTED/COASTAL TROUGH NOW IN PLACE FROM W OF
ECG TO NEAR ILM LIKELY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH MUCH OF
THE PERIOD...AND MAY SERVE AS A SOURCE OF LOCALLY ENHANCED UPLIFT AS
MODEST SURFACE HEATING OCCURS OVER ERN AND NE NC TODAY.  THE
GREATEST RISK FOR SUSTAINED ROTATING STORMS...AND THUS ISOLATED
TORNADOES...MAY OCCUR WHERE CONFLUENCE BANDS INTERSECT THE TROUGH.

..CORFIDI.. 09/14/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.