[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 290525
SWODY1
SPC AC 290523

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1223 AM CDT SAT OCT 29 2005

VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NW ELP 20 W ABQ 50
SW CEZ 25 ENE 4HV 45 W U24 15 NNE ENV 30 SW MLD 45 WNW PIH 35 SW SMN
35 N SMN 70 ESE LWT 25 NNE BHK 35 WSW Y22 50 ENE CDR 15 ESE VTN 35
NNE HON 30 SSW AXN 10 NE MSP 45 E MCW 15 S DSM 60 NW SGF 30 N MKO 30
WNW CHK 35 ESE LBB 30 NW DRT.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN THIRD OF THE NATION WILL SHIFT EWD
INTO THE PLAINS BY LATE SATURDAY...WHILE SHORTWAVE RIDGING PREVAILS
FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE OH AND TN VALLEYS. CLOSED UPPER LOW
NOW OVER THE NERN STATES WILL MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT. AT THE
SURFACE A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE ERN HALF
OF THE COUNTRY. A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SWD THROUGH THE PLAINS AND
UPPER MS VALLEY. A LEE TROUGH SHOULD PERSIST OVER THE CNTRL AND SRN
HIGH PLAINS.


...CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS...

LARGE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WILL MAINTAIN
OFFSHORE FLOW WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 50S OVER THE NRN GULF.
THIS WILL LIMIT ANY FURTHER INCREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S EXPECTED DESPITE PERSISTENT SLY FLOW E OF
LEE TROUGH. DESPITE LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...COLD TEMPERATURES
AROUND -16C NEAR 6 KM ACCOMPANYING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO
THE HIGH PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ON THE ORDER OF 7.5-8 C/KM. THE STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
ABOVE THE MODEST MOIST AXIS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO MUCAPE BETWEEN 400
AND 800 J/KG...ESPECIALLY WHERE ANY SURFACE HEATING CAN OCCUR.

CONVECTION NOW DEVELOPING OVER THE CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES WITHIN THE ZONE
OF ASCENT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL SPREAD EWD THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY. ACTIVITY MAY
INTENSIFY BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE ATMOSPHERE
DESTABILIZES...ESPECIALLY ALONG/E OF LEE TROUGH. ONLY MODEST
VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WHERE
THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR MOST PROBABLE. HOWEVER...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND COLD THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITHIN THE STRONGER STORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER
WRN KS AND EXTREME ERN CO SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MORE FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR FOR STORM ORGANIZATION WILL EXIST OVER
THE SRN HIGH PLAINS BUT A STRONGER CAP AND WEAKER FORCING FOR ASCENT
MAY LIMIT INITIATION OR COVERAGE IN THIS AREA.

..DIAL/GUYER.. 10/29/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.