[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 271242
SWODY1
SPC AC 271241

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0741 AM CDT THU OCT 27 2005

VALID 271300Z - 281200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE BLI 25 WSW SEA
30 ESE AST 10 N ONP.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE 6R6 25 ENE FST
30 E INK 35 SE HOB 50 S LBB 65 ESE LBB 65 NNW ABI 25 W SEP 20 SE AUS
35 SE PSX.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...TX...
MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MAINTAINING AN AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL TX THIS MORNING WHERE ELEVATED CAPE
AROUND 500 J/KG IS IN PLACE.  RELATIVELY COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES
/-14C TO -16C AT H5/ WILL SUSTAIN STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER
MUCH OF CENTRAL TX TODAY.  THOUGH LOW LEVELS REMAIN RATHER
COOL/STABLE...APPEARS COMBINATION OF ASCENT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES
WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ATOP A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER
INTO THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON.

NEARER THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY/TX COAST...BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE REMAINS RICHER NEAR SURFACE FRONT STALLED E-W ACROSS DEEP
SOUTH TX.  LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES SURFACE DEW POINTS IN
THE MID/UPPER 60S SHOULD BE COMMON AS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
APPROACH 80F.  MODIFIED FORECAST/OBSERVED SOUNDINGS INDICATE SBCAPE
SHOULD EXCEED 2000 J/KG /AT LEAST OVER FAR SOUTH TX/...WHICH WILL
LIKELY SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR STALLED SURFACE FRONT
AND INVOF SEA BREEZES DURING THE DAY FROM DEEP SOUTH TX INTO THE
MIDDLE TX COAST.  IN ADDITION...WNWLY MID LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN
MODEST ACROSS THE AREA WITH H5 WINDS FROM 30-35 KT.  RESULTANT 35-45
KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS AND
SUPERCELLS SHOULD AIR MASS DESTABILIZE AS EXPECTED.  THUS...WILL OPT
TO INCLUDE AT LEAST LOW PROBABILITIES OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WITH STRONGER CELLS INTO THE EARLY EVENING. LAPSE RATES REMAIN
RATHER WEAK AND MAY LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT.

..EVANS/CROSBIE.. 10/27/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.