[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 261906
SWODY1
SPC AC 261904

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0204 PM CDT WED OCT 26 2005

VALID 262000Z - 271200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSE 4FC 25 SW PUB
35 E TAD 35 SSW GUY 45 NNW CDS 70 N ABI 25 W SEP 55 W TPL 35 N SAT
30 N HDO 50 SSW JCT 55 NNW DRT 15 NNE 6R6 40 S FST 25 WSW FST 45 WNW
FST 20 S CNM 20 SW ROW 35 WNW ABQ 40 SSE FMN CEZ 55 NE 4BL 10 SW GJT
35 W EGE 30 E EGE 45 SSE 4FC.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES TO WEST TX...
LITTLE CHANGE IN EARLIER THINKING REGARDING EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION
ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO STEEPEN
ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO SURFACE HEATING AND APPROACH OF MID/UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSE. BROAD LOW THROUGH MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
EVIDENT IN SATELLITE LOOP AND UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
RANGE IS LIKELY AIDING CB DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

AS TEMPERATURES DOWNSTREAM FROM ONGOING CONVECTION WARM TO AROUND
70F AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEEPENS...SOUNDING DATA SUGGEST MLCAPE ON THE
ORDER OF 200-300 J/KG WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO EARLY EVENING FROM NERN
NM SEWD TO WEST TX. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEWD MOVING SHORT WAVE
TROUGH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PROMOTE ADDITIONAL STORMS FROM ERN NM
INTO WEST TX PLAINS THROUGH THE EVENING. GIVEN RELATIVELY DEEP DRY
SUB-CLOUD LAYER...AND COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT...GUSTY WINDS AND
PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL COULD ACCOMPANY ONE OR TWO STORMS. CVS TO
LBB CORRIDOR APPEARS TO BE MOST LIKELY AREA TO EXPERIENCE SLIGHTLY
MORE ROBUST CONVECTION INTO THE EVENING.

WEAKENING AND INCREASINGLY ELEVATED STORM ACTIVITY MAY SPREAD SEWD
WITH TIME...PERHAPS REACHING WRN PARTS OF THE HILL COUNTRY BY EARLY
THURSDAY.

..CARBIN.. 10/26/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.