[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 260452
SWODY1
SPC AC 260450

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1150 PM CDT TUE OCT 25 2005

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE 6R6 20 S INK
25 SE 4CR 20 WSW ABQ 45 NNE GUP 45 NNE 4BL 50 N GJT 10 N CAG 45 NW
4FC 35 WSW DEN 25 SSE PUB 30 NNW BGD 25 NW CDS 35 W BWD 40 NNW NIR
45 E CRP.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS...ASSOCIATED WITH AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN U.S...HAS STABILIZED MUCH OF THE U.S. EAST OF THE
ROCKIES.  UPPER FEATURE WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING EASTWARD DURING THIS
FORECAST PERIOD...AS MOST SIGNIFICANT EMBEDDED IMPULSE LIFTS OUT OF
THE NEW ENGLAND INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC.

HOWEVER...ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS STILL EVIDENT IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DIGGING THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. 
THIS SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI/LOWER OHIO VALLEY REGION...AND MAY CONTRIBUTE TO
SOUTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION OF SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE
TROUGH...FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND
WEST TEXAS...LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

FARTHER UPSTREAM...LARGE-SCALE NORTHEAST PACIFIC TROUGH IS BEGINNING
TO DEVELOP INLAND AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATES ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES.  MODELS SUGGEST THERE WILL BE
LITTLE FURTHER EASTWARD PROGRESSION DURING THIS
PERIOD...THOUGH...WITH MOST SIGNIFICANT EMBEDDED IMPULSE STILL
DIGGING OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC...AND LEAD SYSTEM LIFTING INTO 
THE CANADIAN NORTHWEST TERRITORIES.

EVOLVING UPPER PATTERN IS SUPPORTING STABLE OR STABILIZING
ENVIRONMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE NATION TODAY...AND CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO BE AT A RELATIVELY MINIMUM.  EXCEPTION MAY
BE ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL STATES...WHERE LOWER-LEVELS
WILL REMAIN WARM BENEATH WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE...AND MID-LEVEL
COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE MAY CONTRIBUTE TO
STEEP LAPSE RATES.

...SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO WEST TEXAS/LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY...
BENEATH MID-LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH...HEATING/OROGRAPHY MAY SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MOUNTAINS
OF WESTERN COLORADO INTO NORTHERN NEW MEXICO BY THE 18-21Z TIME
FRAME. OTHERWISE...EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...MODELS SUGGEST
LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME MAY BECOME FOCUSED ACROSS THE TEXAS
SOUTH PLAINS...NORTH OF MIDLAND INTO THE LUBBOCK AREA. JUST AHEAD
OF REMNANT WEAKENING MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION...THIS MAY SUPPORT LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...BUT LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO MINIMIZE
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.

MOST CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF SURFACE
HEATING.  HOWEVER...MOISTENING/MODIFICATION OF LOWER-LEVELS MAY
BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW SHOWERS/POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM ACROSS
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS BY EARLY THURSDAY...AS SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH TURNS
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.

..KERR.. 10/26/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.