[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 280557
SWODY1
SPC AC 280555

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1155 PM CST SUN NOV 27 2005

VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW
TOI 20 W SEM 15 SSW TCL 35 S MSL 35 NNE HSV 10 W CHA 30 ESE CHA 25
NNE ATL 35 ENE CSG 30 SSE CSG 25 N DHN 15 SSE TOI 35 WSW TOI.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSW
HUM 35 NE MCB 40 ESE GWO 40 N TUP 35 W HOP 35 SW HUF 20 SSE VPZ 20
SSW AZO 20 WSW ARB 45 SSE DTW 10 E ZZV 50 SSW BLF 45 WNW CAE 30 NNW
AYS 40 WSW CTY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSE BPT 25 ENE GLH
35 SW PAH 15 SE PIA 35 SE DBQ 35 ESE RHI ANJ.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NE ROC 35 SSW ROC
20 E AOO 15 W RIC 20 ENE GSB 45 SSW HSE.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF AL AND GA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GULF COAST
STATES...TN VALLEY AND OH VALLEY...

...GULF COAST STATES/TN AND OH VALLEYS...
A POWERFUL UPPER-LOW OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL MOVE NNEWD ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY. ON THE SOUTH END OF THE SYSTEM...THE
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 120 KT MID-LEVEL JET MAX WILL DRIFT EWD ACROSS
THE GULF COAST STATES SPREADING STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE ACROSS
THE REGION AND AIDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...A LINE OF STORMS JUST AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT SHOULD BE POSITIONED FROM FAR ERN IL EXTENDING SWD ACROSS
WRN KY INTO WCNTRL TN AND WCNTRL MS. HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS IN THE LINE. INITIALLY THE THREAT
SHOULD BE MARGINAL DUE TO RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY BUT AS
INSTABILITY INCREASES DURING THE MORNING HOURS...REGENERATION OR
REDEVELOPMENT OF THE LINE APPEARS LIKELY. ALTHOUGH THE NAM FORECAST
INSTABILITY MAY BE OVERDONE SOMEWHAT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR CNTRL
AL BY AFTERNOON SHOW SBCAPE VALUES IN THE 2000 TO 3000 J/KG RANGE.
IN ADDITION...0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES ARE FORECAST TO EXCEED 60 KT WHICH
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. SUPERCELLS WILL BE
LIKELY IN THE LINE OR ISOLATED SUPERCELL STORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF
THE LINE DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM MIDDLE TN EXTENDING SWD ACROSS AL
INTO THE FL PANHANDLE. THE GREATEST SUPERCELL THREAT SHOULD EXIST
OVER CNTRL AND ERN AL INTO WRN GA WHERE THE INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL
SHEAR PROFILE COMBINATION SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ALSO SHOW 0-1 KM SHEAR EXCEEDING 30 KT OVER THE MODERATE RISK AREA
SUGGESTING TORNADOES WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS. A FEW STRONG/LONG TRACK TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. IN
ADDITION...ANY SUPERCELLS OR BOW ECHOES THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE
POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE EVENING WITH THE THREAT
GRADUALLY DECREASING AROUND MIDNIGHT DUE TO WEAKENING INSTABILITY.

FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE OH VALLEY...WEAKER INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN LESS SEVERE WEATHER COVERAGE. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S F
AS FAR NORTH AS LOWER MI SHOULD RESULT IN ENOUGH INSTABILITY
COMBINED WITH THE VERY STRONG SHEAR FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS. A FEW
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR.
HOWEVER...LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

..BROYLES/SCHNEIDER.. 11/28/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM