[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 280100
SWODY1
SPC AC 280059

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0659 PM CST SUN NOV 27 2005

VALID 280100Z - 281200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N
ELD 30 S HOT HOT 35 W BVX 30 WNW UNO 10 SE TBN 40 SSE VIH 40 SW FAM
15 ENE ARG 50 WSW MEM 25 W LLQ 30 N ELD.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S
BPT 25 NW UTS 25 WSW TYR 15 E RKR 20 SSE FYV 20 WSW UMN 30 SSW TOP
25 ESE BIE 15 WNW OMA 25 SE SLB 30 SE MCW 40 NE ALO 20 NE DBQ 35 NW
MMO CMI 25 W EVV 45 SE MKL 35 WNW PIB 65 SSE 7R4.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSE CHS 20 S CHS
40 ENE OGB 25 N FLO 15 ENE SOP GSB EWN 60 SSW HSE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSE PSX VCT 15 SSW
AUS 20 WSW TPL 30 NNW CRS 30 SE MLC 30 ESE MKO 30 SSW GMJ 35 S EMP
25 N SLN 25 SSE HSI 25 SE ONL 15 WNW BKX 25 SE BRD 30 NE IWD 45 NNE
ESC 15 ENE TVC 30 NW LAN 10 NNE FWA 30 ENE BWG 25 SE HSV 35 SW ANB
30 NE DHN 20 N TLH 45 WSW CTY.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF MO AND AR...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER AND
MID MS VALLEY...

...LOWER TO MID MS VALLEY...
THE SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK UNDERWAY ACROSS MO AND AR WILL CONTINUE
FOR AT LEAST 3 TO 4 MORE HOURS AS AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER-LOW MOVES
TOWARD THE REGION. THE EXIT REGION OF A 125 KT MID-LEVEL JET IS
CURRENTLY PRESENT ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA WITH THE JET
SPLITTING DUE TO VERY STRONG DIVERGENCE AS SUGGESTED BY THE NAM AND
GFS SOLUTIONS. THIS VERY STRONG LIFT WILL CONTINUE TO SUSTAIN VERY
INTENSE STORMS WITH SUPERCELLS...BOW ECHOES AND SEVERE MULTICELLS
LIKELY. SFC DEWPOINTS NEAR 60 F EXTEND AS FAR NORTH AS THE MO-AR
STATE-LINE WITH MLCAPE VALUES FROM 750 TO 1000 J/KG. CONSIDERING THE
STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...A THREAT FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS
SHOULD CONTINUE AS THE LINE MOVES ENEWD ACROSS ERN AR AND SERN MO
THIS EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH A FEW OVER 70
KT WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER CELLS IN THE LINE.

FARTHER NORTH ACROSS WRN AND CNTRL MO...A SECONDARY LINE APPEARS TO
BE DEVELOPING. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER IN
THIS REGION...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPER DUE TO THE PROXIMITY
OF THE UPPER-LOW. IN ADDITION...BACKED SFC WINDS ARE CONTRIBUTING TO
0-3 KM SRH VALUES OF 300 TO 500 M2/S2 AS SUGGESTED BY 88D VAD WIND
PROFILES IN THE AREA. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR ISOLATED SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT WITH LARGE HAIL...WIND DAMAGE AND A FEW TORNADOES
POSSIBLE. A SEVERE THREAT MAY ALSO CONTINUE AS FAR NORTH AS CNTRL IA
THROUGH THE EVENING.

AS THE TWO LINES MOVE EWD TO NEAR THE MS RIVER BASIN BY
MIDNIGHT...WEAKENING INSTABILITY SHOULD ALLOW THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT TO GRADUALLY DECREASE OVER TIME. THE THREAT SHOULD BECOME
MARGINAL AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE LINE MOVES EWD ACROSS IL...WRN TN AND
WRN MS.

..BROYLES.. 11/28/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM