[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 220527
SWODY1
SPC AC 220526

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1126 PM CST MON NOV 21 2005

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSE JFK 25 SE EEN
35 NNW AUG 20 ENE CAR.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...ERN NEW ENGLAND...
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION NWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND BY 23/00Z...AND THEN OVER ERN
QUEBEC TONIGHT.  ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW INITIALLY LOCATED SOUTH OF
LONG ISLAND WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY AS STRONG
HEIGHT FALLS /200-240 METERS/ SPREAD NWD WITH THIS SYSTEM. 
PRECIPITATION SHIELD ALONG/AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK SHOULD BE
ENHANCED FROM S-N ACROSS MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND WITHIN STRONG WAA
REGIME...AS 85-100 KT SSELY LLJ NOSES INTO ERN NEW ENGLAND.  STRONG
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/WARM AIR ADVECTION COMBINED WITH MID LEVEL
COOLING IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT MODEST ELEVATED CAPE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OFFSHORE...WITH SOME THREAT INLAND ACROSS ERN
NEW ENGLAND INTO THE AFTERNOON.

...SRN CA...
A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ARE EXPECTED TO ROTATE AROUND
THE ERN PERIPHERY OF A BROAD CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED OFF
THE WEST COAST.  DESPITE RATHER DRY LOW LEVELS...THE COMBINATION OF
MID LEVEL MOISTURE...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND ASCENT WITH THE TROUGHS
SUGGEST A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE OFFSHORE AND ALONG
PARTS OF THE SRN CA COAST.  GIVEN A LOW PROBABILITY FOR LIGHTNING TO
OCCUR INLAND...A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK WILL NOT BE ADDED AT
THIS TIME.

..PETERS.. 11/22/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.