[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 190533
SWODY1
SPC AC 190531

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1131 PM CST FRI NOV 18 2005

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW APF 40 E DAB.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

ELONGATED ZONE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE GULF
COAST STATES SATURDAY WITH A SIGNIFICANT NELY OFFSHORE COMPONENT
NOTED FOR ALL BUT FL DURING THE PERIOD.  LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS WILL STRENGTHEN WARM ADVECTION PROFILES ACROSS
DEEP SOUTH TX...BUT MAIN BAROCLINICITY WILL EVOLVE JUST OFFSHORE AND
BECOME MORE FOCUSED ACROSS THE NWRN GULF OF MEXICO LATE IN THE
PERIOD.  IT APPEARS THE GREATEST RISK OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
OVER LAND THIS PERIOD WILL OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SRN FL
PENINSULA.

PERSISTENT ELY COMPONENT AND VEERING WIND FIELDS WITH
HEIGHT...ALBEIT WEAK...WILL CREATE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
GRADUALLY MOISTENING PROFILES. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
FORECASTING DEEP...MOIST ADIABATIC...HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER
SOUNDINGS ACROSS THIS REGION.  ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO
HOLD ON THE ORDER OF 500J/KG MLCAPE...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP WITHIN BROADER ZONE OF SHOWERS/PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD.

..DARROW.. 11/19/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.