[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 130521
SWODY1
SPC AC 130519

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1119 PM CST SAT NOV 12 2005

VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE 6R6 40 W BWD 20
E DUA 15 NNW RUE 30 E MVN 25 WSW LUK 40 E LUK 25 NNW HTS 20 SSE HTS
40 ESE LOZ 20 SSW TYS 20 ENE GAD 25 S BHM 40 E MEI 40 S MEI 40 SE
PIB 25 ESE GPT 20 ENE BVE 75 SW BVE ...CONT... 70 ESE CRP 40 S ALI
25 SW LRD.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

CYCLONIC...MID/HIGH-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL EXIST OVER THE CONUS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS WRN GREAT LAKES SYSTEM CONTINUES INTO
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC...AND NEXT UPSTREAM SYSTEM AMPLIFIES OVER THE NRN
ROCKIES.  IN THE LOW-LEVELS...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD
IMPULSE WILL PUSH SEWD THROUGH THE OH/TN VALLEYS WITH TRAILING
PORTION OF BOUNDARY SETTLING MORE SLOWLY SWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS
VALLEY AND SRN PLAINS. MEANWHILE...LEE TROUGH WILL INTENSIFY OVER
THE NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPING SEWD FROM ALBERTA INTO ERN MT.

...LOWER MS VALLEY INTO ERN TX...

CLUSTERS OF TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY PERHAPS INTO ERN TX ALONG
SRN FRINGE OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL WAA ASSOCIATED WITH WRN GREAT LAKES
SYSTEM.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD TEND TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE
COURSE OF THE MORNING OWING TO THE VEERING/WEAKENING OF THE LLJ.

CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE TX COAST NWD ACROSS ERN TX
INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF A MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS WITH DEWPOINTS
COMMONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.  DAYTIME HEATING COUPLED WITH THIS
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR
MASS /MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG/ LATER TODAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING
COLD FRONT.  THIS INSTABILITY IN CONJUNCTION WITH SUSTAINED
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INVOF FRONT AND/OR ANY PRE-EXISTING OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES ARE EXPECTED TO LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN DIURNAL TSTM
ACTIVITY BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON FROM NEAR THE MS RIVER WWD INTO
ERN/SERN TX.

LARGELY MOIST ADIABATIC MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL VERTICAL
SHEAR /EFFECTIVE BULK SHEARS AOB 30 KTS/ SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT
OVERALL SEVERITY/ORGANIZATION OF STORMS THAT DEVELOP. 
HOWEVER...ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF
NOCTURNAL COOLING AND STABILIZATION IN THE BOUNDARY-LAYER.

..MEAD/JEWELL.. 11/13/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.