[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 130050
SWODY1
SPC AC 130048

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0648 PM CST SAT NOV 12 2005

VALID 130100Z - 131200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE
FRM 30 SW RWF 40 S AXN 25 NW STC 55 S DLH 45 W RHI 35 E VOK 25 E MLI
30 W SPI 25 SW FAM 30 SE BVX 35 E ELD 50 WNW POE UTS 20 SSE ACT FTW
50 N JLN 25 NNE OXV 35 SE FRM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNW CLE 45 ESE BWG
40 E TUP 30 N HEZ 45 NW LFT 55 SW 7R4 ...CONT... 55 ESE CRP 25 NE
COT 20 NNW HDO 10 ENE MWL 40 SSE CQB 15 ESE OJC DSM 20 SW FSD 35 NW
ATY 20 NW INL.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT FROM THE WRN GREAT
LAKES INTO THE ARKLATEX...

...UPPER MIDWEST INTO WRN GREAT LAKES...

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS NEGATIVELY-TILTED SHORTWAVE
LIFTING NEWD THROUGH THE MID MO VALLEY WITH ATTENDANT 70-80 KT JET
STREAK LOCATED ALONG DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF TROUGH AXIS FROM NRN MO INTO
WI.  IN THE LOW-LEVELS...STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING AHEAD OF UPPER
SYSTEM HAS RESULTED IN THE DEEPENING OF ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER
SWRN MN...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT DEVELOPS NEWD ALONG
WARM FRONT INTO NRN WI OR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR BY 13/12Z. 
MEANWHILE...TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SURGE EWD THROUGH THE MS VALLEY
OVERNIGHT.

CLUSTER OF SUPERCELLS OBSERVED EARLIER OVER CNTRL IA HAVE GRADUALLY
WEAKENED OVER THE PAST HOUR AS THEY ENCOUNTER PROGRESSIVELY MORE
STABLE AIR MASS FOR SURFACE-BASED PARCELS ACROSS NRN AND ERN IA /PER
00Z DVN AND MPX SOUNDINGS/.  STRENGTHENING OF UPPER TROUGH AND
RESULTANT DEEPENING OF SURFACE LOW OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW WARM SECTOR
AIR MASS TO DESTABILIZE NEWD...POTENTIALLY ALLOWING SOME
SURFACE-BASED STORMS TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS ERN IA
INTO SRN MN.  GIVEN THE STRONG LOW AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OBSERVED IN
REGIONAL SOUNDING AND VAD/PROFILER DATA...THREAT OF SUPERCELLS AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE INTO LATE EVENING.

OTHER SLIGHTLY ELEVATED STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITHIN
REGION OF STRONG FORCING ACROSS SRN/CNTRL MN INTO WI.  FORECAST
SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW EMBEDDED SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS ISOLATED DAMAGING
WINDS.

...OZARKS INTO THE ARKLATEX...

CLUSTERS OF TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER SWRN MO AND SERN OK
ALONG PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH OR DRYLINE WHERE LOCALLY WARMER
BOUNDARY-LAYER CONDITIONS AND SUSTAINED CONVERGENCE HAVE OVERCOME
CAP.  PERSISTENT CLOUDS AND RESULTANT COOLER TEMPERATURES FROM 
CNTRL AR NWD INTO THE OZARKS HAVE LIMITED AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION
AS OBSERVED BY THE 00Z SGF SOUNDING.  MODIFICATION OF THIS SOUNDING
FOR BOUNDARY-LAYER CONDITIONS CURRENTLY ACROSS ERN OK YIELDS MLCAPES
OF 1000-1500 J/KG.

VERTICAL SHEAR /I.E. 00Z SGF HODOGRAPH AND DE QUEEN AR PROFILER/
INDICATE A VERY FAVORABLE KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT FOR SUPERCELLS AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES GIVEN 0-1 KM SRH OF 200-300 M2/S2 AND EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR OF 40-50 KTS.  SHOULD STORMS REMAIN RELATIVELY
DISCRETE...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES...IN ADDITION
TO DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.  THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL AS
CONVECTION BECOMES MORE LINEAR OVERNIGHT.

..MEAD.. 11/13/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.