[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 120055
SWODY1
SPC AC 120053

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0653 PM CST FRI NOV 11 2005

VALID 120100Z - 121200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WSW MRF 55 NNW MRF
55 WNW CVS 10 NE LVS 15 ESE DRO 10 SW 4HV 55 WNW PUC 20 E SLC 40 WNW
RKS 25 SSE CPR 20 W MHN 15 NNW BUB 15 SSE DNS 30 SSW DSM 25 SE LWD
55 SW SZL 15 SSW GMJ 50 W GYI 45 SW ABI 50 SW SJT 40 WNW DRT.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...FOUR CORNERS TO CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...
VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH WAS CROSSING THE FOUR CORNERS AREA THIS
EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EAST INTO THE GREAT PLAINS
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH THIS
IMPULSE WAS CONTINUING TO PROMOTE SCATTERED TSTMS IN WEAKLY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE ROCKIES. ISOLATED CG LTG STRIKES HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER THE NERN PLAINS OF NM AND ERN PLAINS OF CO WHERE
LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATED MUCAPE WAS IN THE RANGE OF 100-150
J/KG.

THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD
INCREASE OVER PARTS OF THE PLAINS TONIGHT AS STRONG HEIGHT FALLS
SPREAD EAST AND LARGE SCALE LIFT AND LOWERING STATIC STABILITY OCCUR
ATOP CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER. MODEL GUIDANCE WAS SENDING MIXED SIGNALS
WITH REGARD TO TSTM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN INTENSIFYING WARM CONVEYOR
BELT FROM TX TO IA THROUGH 12Z. INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN THIS CORRIDOR SHOULD ACT TO LOCALLY OVERCOME
NEGATIVE BUOYANCY AND PROMOTE SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION. CALIBRATED
ENSEMBLE OUTPUT AND SPC EXPLICIT TSTM GUIDANCE SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO
TO SOME EXTENT...WITH BOTH INDICATING POCKETS OF AT LEAST 10 PERCENT
PROBABILITY OF TSTMS OVER ERN PORTIONS OF THE GENL TSTM OUTLOOK...
FROM TX TO IA...THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

..CARBIN.. 11/12/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.