[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 262013
SWODY1
SPC AC 262011

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0311 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2005

VALID 262000Z - 271200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE
DMN SVC 10 WNW GNT 20 NNW 4SL 10 ENE DRO 45 NW ALS 20 NNE ALS 45 NNW
LVS 35 ESE ABQ 4CR 50 WNW CNM 45 SE ELP.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE
DRT 55 ESE DRT COT 35 SSE COT ALI 25 N BRO.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW
9V9 30 E HON 35 WNW RWF 35 NNW MKT 10 SE LSE DBQ 15 NNW OTM 15 ESE
OMA 10 NNE OFK 45 E ANW 35 SSW 9V9.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SW TUS 25 NW TUS
15 E SAD 25 SW SOW 70 ESE PGA 25 NNW SGU TPH 20 E BIH 30 NE MER 10 W
RBL 15 E EKA 25 SE AST 20 NE PDX 75 NW WMC 10 SSE DPG VEL 55 S 4FC
20 E CYS 50 E DGW 50 WSW GCC 50 NW COD 30 W 3HT 40 ESE SDY 35 NW BIS
BJI 20 ENE DLH 35 NE CMX ...CONT... 30 N JHW DUJ 15 WSW LBE UNI 25
NNE LEX HOP GLH 10 WSW GGG 35 SW TYR 35 SSE LFK BVE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S SGF 20 NNW TBN
25 NW COU 10 SSE FLV 55 SSW HSI 10 ENE IML 40 NNW GLD 55 NE LAA 20
ENE DDC CSM 10 SSE OKC 20 ESE TUL 10 S SGF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 N PIE 10 NNE MLB.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTN ACROSS PARTS OF THE
MID MO VALLEY....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTN/EARLY EVE ACROSS
PARTS OF THE LWR RIO GRANDE VALLEY....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN NEAR THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES....

CORRECTED GEN TSTMS POINTS LIST

...NORTH CENTRAL STATES...
MANITOBA CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO DEVELOP SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AS STRONG CYCLONIC MID/UPPER JET DIGS
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  DAYTIME HEATING ON SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
MID-LEVEL COLD POOL /WITH 500 MB TEMPS AS LOW AS -24C/ IS ALREADY
CONTRIBUTING TO INCREASING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...WHICH
SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY THROUGH PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING. 


LATEST OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE SUGGEST INSTABILITY IS MAXIMIZED FROM
SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST
IOWA...WHERE MOST UNSTABLE CAPE IS IN EXCESS OF 500 J/KG.  GIVEN
FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR...THIS AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT
STRONGEST STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...SOME OF WHICH LIKELY WILL AT
LEAST BRIEFLY EXCEED SEVERE LIMITS.  ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP
SOUTHEASTWARD...BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN BY AROUND 02Z AS BOUNDARY
LAYER BEGINS TO COOL.

...FLORIDA...
BOUNDARY LAYER IS NOT QUITE AS UNSTABLE AS PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...
BUT HEATING HAS CONTRIBUTED TO MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000
J/KG.  WEAK CAPPING HAS BEEN OVERCOME...WITH WEAK SOUTHEASTWARD
PROGRESSING IMPULSE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ENHANCING LIFT
VICINITY OF WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SEA BREEZES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PENINSULA.  THOUGH SHEAR PROFILES ARE GENERALLY WEAK...
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT STILL APPEARS SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST VERY
LOCALIZED DOWNBURSTS AND SOME HAIL.

...SOUTHERN PLAINS...
LOW-LEVEL COOLING AND EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
PAST DAY OR SO HAS STABILIZED ENVIRONMENT ACROSS MUCH OF TEXAS. 
EXCEPTION IS ACROSS MID/LOWER TEXAS COASTAL AREAS AND DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS...WHERE IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN WEAK NORTHWESTERN FLOW
REGIME...ON PERIPHERY OF WEAKENING MEXICAN PLATEAU MID-LEVEL
RIDGE...MAY ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.  BEST
SEVERE POTENTIAL...HOWEVER...APPEARS TO BE ALONG/WEST OF THE RIO
GRANDE RIVER...WHERE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN STEEP VICINITY OF
THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME IS
DEVELOPING.

...NEW MEXICO...
COLD SURGE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS APPEARS TO HAVE
CONFINED PRIMARY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
AREAS TO THE IMMEDIATE LEE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  STEEP LAPSE RATES
AND MODERATE SHEAR BENEATH NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW REGIME
ACROSS THESE AREAS PROVIDES POTENTIAL FOR A SEVERE STORM OR
TWO...WITH RISK OF HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

...INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST...
LIFT/DESTABILIZATION NEAR LOW/MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN IS ALREADY CONTRIBUTING TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY.  THIS SHOULD INCREASE FURTHER IN THE AFTERNOON
HEATING...WITH LOW/MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME CONTRIBUTING TO
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT FROM THE VICINITY OF THE NORTHERN SIERRA
NEVADA THROUGH THE SOUTHERN CASCADES.

..KERR.. 05/26/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.