[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 232002
SWODY1
SPC AC 232000

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0300 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2005

VALID 232000Z - 241200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM AGS 10
ESE SAV SSI 15 ESE TLH 30 WSW MCB 40 E SHV 25 SW MLC OKC 50 ESE GAG
TCC 20 W CAO PUB LIC BFF 50 SW RAP RAP 55 WNW HON HON GRI CNK MHK 25
NNE LIT 20 SSE UOX 25 WNW BHM 10 ESE GAD AHN AGS.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW
HSE 35 N EWN 55 NE RWI 25 W RIC 15 SSE CHO 45 ENE CHO 20 SSW NHK 35
WSW WAL 40 SSW WAL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE YUM IGM 20 NNW
GCN BCE 40 SSE U24 30 ESE DPG 60 SW MLD COD REJ 30 ESE MOT 55 NE MOT
...CONT... 10 SW RRT 10 NNW AXN 35 ESE OMA 45 N JLN ARG 10 WNW TUP
RMG SPA SOP RWI 65 SW RIC 20 NW ROA FWA 20 SSE MKG 20 E GRR 10 E DTW
...CONT... 25 WSW ERI 20 NNE AOO CXY 30 SSW ACY ...CONT... 25 SSE
DAB 20 NNW PIE ...CONT... 30 SSE LCH LFK 45 SSE DAL 10 WNW SEP 15 NW
DRT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NNE GGW 45 WNW GTF
45 SE 4OM 15 N BLI.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN/EVENING FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LWR MS VALLEY AND ERN GULF STATES....

...CENTRAL PLAINS**...
UPPER HIGH CENTER OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/NORTHERN CHIHUAHUA
REMAINS STRONG...WITH RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. CAPPING ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO PROVIDE UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO
EXTENT OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD.

ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ALREADY UNDERWAY IN THE IMMEDIATE
LEE OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES.  THIS APPEARS PRIMARILY IN
RESPONSE TO DAYTIME HEATING...BUT ACTIVITY OVER COLORADO/SOUTHEAST
WYOMING MAY BE ENHANCED BY WEAK IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN BROADER
SCALE ANTICYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW FIELD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. 
ONE DISTINCT UPPER FEATURE IS NOT  READILY EVIDENT IN LATEST WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY...BUT MODELS SUGGEST A PERTURBATION WILL MIGRATE
ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO CENTRAL KANSAS BY LATE TONIGHT.

ADDITIONAL ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON NEAR LEE SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...AND NEAR WEAKENING SURFACE FRONT VICINITY OF THE
KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER.  GIVEN MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE OF 1500 TO 3000 J/KG...A COUPLE OF SUPERCELLS
ARE EXPECTED WITH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND A FEW DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. ACTIVITY SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH 24/02-03Z...BEFORE ONSET OF
SURFACE COOLING BEGINS TO INCREASE INHIBITION FOR PARCELS BASED IN
BOUNDARY LAYER.

LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...LOW-LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION AND MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION MAY
BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF EVOLVING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER FROM SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA/NORTHWEST KANSAS INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KANSAS.  THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BASED ABOVE RADIATIONAL INVERSION
LAYER...WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT.

...CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF STATES**...
BOUNDARY LAYER IS WEAKLY CAPPED WITH CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG
ACROSS MUCH OF MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA AND GEORGIA.  REMNANT IMPULSE
FROM OVERNIGHT MCS ACROSS THE OZARKS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP SOUTHEAST
OF THE MEMPHIS AREA...AND COULD STILL PROVIDE FORCING FOR AN
ADDITIONAL CLUSTER OF STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.  BEST
CHANCE APPEARS TO BE FROM PARTS OF EAST CENTAL MISSISSIPPI THROUGH
CENTRAL ALABAMA...WHERE INSTABILITY IS MAXIMIZED.  AIDED BY MODERATE
FLOW ON SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF EASTERN STATES CYCLONIC MID/UPPER
REGIME...ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL/GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE.

...LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES**...
STORMS ARE QUITE NUMEROUS BENEATH MID-LEVEL COLD POOL...ALONG/JUST
NORTH OF CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL JET ROTATING INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS.  HAIL EXCEEDING SEVERE LIMITS IS POSSIBLE IN MOST OF
THE STRONGER CELLS.  STRONGEST INSTABILITY AND BEST CHANCE FOR
SEVERE STORMS EXISTS NORTHWEST OF RICHMOND VA INTO THE SOUTHERN
DELMARVA PENINSULA AND EXTREME NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...WHERE
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER HAS HEATED TO AROUND 80F. THIS HAS SUPPORTED
CAPE UP TO 1000 J/KG...WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH AROUND 24/00-01Z.

**FOR MORE SPECIFIC INFORMATION CONCERNING ONGOING OR IMMINENT
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...PLEASE REFER TO LATEST SPC MESOSCALE
DISCUSSIONS.

..KERR.. 05/23/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.