[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 231605
SWODY1
SPC AC 231604

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1104 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2005

VALID 231630Z - 241200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE
JAX 10 ESE TLH 30 WSW MCB 40 E SHV 20 SSE ADM 55 WNW CSM 25 WSW AMA
10 WSW CVS 45 ENE LVS 15 S PUB 30 ESE CYS 10 NE CDR 20 WSW PIR HON
YKN 30 N GRI 50 S EAR 10 NW HUT 15 NNW JLN 25 NNE LIT 20 SSE UOX 20
S 0A8 40 ENE ABY 25 W SAV 40 ESE AGS 30 E CAE 35 W OAJ 30 NNW RWI 50
SW RIC 25 NW RIC 35 WSW NHK 15 ENE WAL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE LCH 55 NNE CLL
15 N BWD 25 NW SJT 70 S MRF ...CONT... 60 WSW TUS 40 NE PHX 20 NNW
GCN 40 S 4BL 35 S MTJ 15 NNE MTJ 45 NNW GJT 45 E PUC 30 ESE DPG 60
SW MLD 40 NW COD 25 NNW REJ 20 N DIK 70 NW MOT ...CONT... 60 NNE GGW
45 WNW GTF 15 N EAT 15 N BLI ...CONT... 30 W INL 35 ENE AXN 40 ESE
OMA 55 S SZL 20 NNE DYR 25 E AND 30 SSW CLT 30 NNE CLT 35 E TRI 30
NNW JKL 30 SW FWA 10 N AZO 20 NNW LAN 10 NNW MTC ...CONT... ERI 25
SSE NEL ...CONT... 25 SSE DAB 20 NNW PIE.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS 
EWD ACROSS GULF STATES TO SERN COAST....

...SYNOPSIS...
BLOCKING UPPER AIR PATTERN PERSISTS NORTH AMERICA WITH UPPER HIGH
ERN CANADA AND UPPER LOW OVER NERN U.S. CHANGING LITTLE IN NEAR
TERM.  STRONG WLYS INTO WRN CANADA/NWRN U.S. GRADUALLY SUPPRESSING
UNSEASONABLY LARGE UPPER HIGH OVER SWRN STATES...SWD INTO NRN
MEXICO. STRONG MID LEVEL JET MAX ROTATES SEWD ACROSS OH VALLEY TO
MID ATLANTIC COAST BY TONIGHT. ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. NWLY FLOW
WILL PREVAIL E OF ROCKIES ENHANCING SHEAR PROFILES FOR ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOR CENTRAL ROCKIES E/SEWD ACROSS LWR MS
VALLEY TO SERN STATES.

AT THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY DEEPENS OVER SERN VA/ERN NC
TODAY IN RESPONSE TO APPROACH OF STRONG JET MAX WITH A FRONTAL ZONE
TRAILING FROM THERE WSWWD ACROSS NRN PORTION OF GULF STATES THEN WWD
THRU NRN OK TO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE VICINITY OK PANHANDLE.


...CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS...
E/SELY FLOW TO N OF E/W FRONTAL ZONE WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WWD TO FRONT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON.
STRONG HEATING AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL PUSH MLCAPES TO 3000 J/KG
OR MORE FROM ERN CO/WRN KS INTO WRN NEB.  WITH 40 KTS OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR...PARAMETERS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS
DURING AFTERNOON ALONG AND E OF FRONT RANGE.  PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE
VERY LARGE HAIL...HOWEVER ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE LIKELY GIVEN AMOUNT
OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR.  A SEVERE MCS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE DURING
EVENING AND TRACK E/SEWD ACROSS WRN KS INTO OK MAINTAINING A SEVERE
THREAT MOST OF NIGHT GIVEN AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY NOW IN
PLACE OVER SRN PLAINS.

...LOWER MS VALLEY EWD TO SERN COAST...
WHILE SHEAR IS GENERALLY WEAKER ALONG AND S OF FRONTAL ZONE E OF SRN
PLAINS...AVAILABLE INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES AROUND 7C/KM WILL
SUPPORT PRIMARILY DIURNAL SEVERE THREAT.  STORM MODE SHOULD BE
MOSTLY MULTI-CELLULAR WITH THREAT PRIMARILY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED
DAMAGING WINDS.  WIND THREAT WILL BE SOMEWHAT GREATER WHERE STORMS
CAN GENERATE A COLD POOL.

...MID-ATLANTIC COAST...
A LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS SERN VA THIS AFTERNOON AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH APPROACH OF STRONG MID LEVEL JET MAX FROM OH
VALLEY.  SEVERE THREAT DEPENDENT ON AVAILABLE INSTABILITY AS TO THE
N OF NC/VA BORDER AVAILABILITY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DECREASES. 
STRONG HEATING TO LEE OF APPALACHIANS WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES WHICH
COUPLED WITH 50-60KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST
DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL IN ANY STORM THAT CAN DEVELOP OVER ERN
VA/NC.

..HALES/CROSBIE.. 05/23/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.