[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 281959
SWODY1
SPC AC 281957

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0157 PM CST MON MAR 28 2005

VALID 282000Z - 291200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE
ECG 40 W ECG 55 S RIC RIC 45 N RIC 25 NNE NHK 35 SE DOV.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE SAV AGS FLO 20
S OAJ 40 NNW EWN 45 N RWI PSK PKB LBE 30 WNW MSV 10 ENE PSM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE SMX 10 NNE SCK
60 SE RBL 30 E RBL 65 SSW BNO 65 N BNO 10 E ALW 25 W MSO 3DU 25 ESE
3HT 40 SW GGW 20 E OLF 35 ESE ISN 25 NE DIK 30 N REJ 15 ENE GCC 45 E
WRL 50 NNW RIW 45 NNE BPI BPI VEL CNY PGA 50 WSW GCN LAS NID BFL 40
ENE SMX.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SERN VA...SRN DELMARVA
TIDEWATER REGION...

...SYNOPSIS...
PRONOUNCED MID/UPPER CYCLONE IS EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY 
AND VWP/REFLECTIVITY DATA...MOVING ENEWD FROM VICINITY TN/NC BORDER.
 ASSOCIATED SFC LOW -- NOW ANALYZED NEAR RIC...WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
DELMARVA BY 29/06Z...FOLLOWED CLOSELY BY VORTEX ALOFT. ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFFSHORE ALL BUT PORTIONS EXTREME SERN FL AND
KEYS...AND HAS OCCLUDED FROM RIC-AREA LOW SEWD TO JUST OFFSHORE NRN
OUTER BANKS.

...TIDEWATER REGION VA/MD/DE...
SMALL AREA OF SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINS ACROSS PORTIONS SERN VA...
PERHAPS SPREADING INTO ERN SHORE REGION OF CHESAPEAKE BAY BEFORE
MOVING INTO MORE STABLE AIR MASS FROM COLD ATLANTIC WATERS. 
CONVECTION OVER RIC AREA MAY BACKBUILD SEWD INTO NARROW PLUME OF
SFC-BASED INSTABILITY WITH 1000-1500 J/KG SBCAPE JUST BEHIND
OCCLUDED FRONT.  ACTIVITY IS IN REGIME THAT IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR
SEVERE SYNOPTICALLY...BUT QUITE COMPRESSED IN SIZE -- NOSE OF
LOW-MIDLEVEL DRY PUNCH...COLOCATED WITH BOUNDARY LAYER
CONVERGENCE/VORTICITY MAX NEAR SFC LOW CENTER...AND ALONG SW-NE
ORIENTED PIEDMONT FRONT.  REF SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 427 FOR
ADDITIONAL SHORT-TERM DETAILS.

OTHERWISE...SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH FROM SW-NE ACROSS REGION
THROUGH REMAINDER AFTERNOON/EVENING...AS PRONOUNCED/POSTFRONTAL DRY
ADVECTION REDUCES AVAILABLE BOUNDARY LAYER THETAE.  THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL CAA AND DIABATIC SFC
COOLING...FURTHER LIMITING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.  GEN TSTMS POSSIBLE
 THIS EVENING IN ELEVATED WAA CONVEYOR AS FAR NE AS PORTIONS SRN NEW
ENGLAND.

..EDWARDS.. 03/28/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.