[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 280548
SWODY1
SPC AC 280546

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1146 PM CST SUN MAR 27 2005

VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE
ILM 20 SSW RDU 10 NE DAN 15 ENE LYH 20 ENE CHO 10 SSW BWI 10 SSE
ACY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW SRQ 35 NNW DAB
...CONT... 35 NNE SSI 15 NW AGS 60 WNW AND CSV 35 ENE SDF 20 SE DAY
30 NNW ZZV 25 N PIT 30 WNW MSV 10 ENE PSM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WSW MSO 25 W BZN
25 ESE 3HT 40 SW GGW 20 E OLF 35 ESE ISN 45 WNW BIS 45 SE REJ 25 SSE
GCC 30 W LND 25 SE VEL 35 NNW 4BL 35 SSW PGA 40 WNW IGM 40 SSW DRA
20 NNW BFL 10 NNW SCK 25 ENE RBL 50 NW BNO 20 WSW LWS 10 WSW MSO.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ERN VA / ERN NC AND THE
DELMARVA REGION...

...SYNOPSIS...
STRONG UPPER LOW -- INITIALLY FORECAST OVER THE TN VALLEY -- WILL
MOVE RAPIDLY EWD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE DAY...AND OFF THE
ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.  ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW SHOULD REDEVELOP E OF THE APPALACHIANS OVER INLAND VA / NC
DURING THE DAY...AND THEN SHIFT SLOWLY EWD / OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST BY MIDNIGHT.  WITH WARM FRONT FORECAST TO BE MOVING NWD ACROSS
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND COLD FRONT MOVING EWD OFF THE SRN
ATLANTIC COAST...A NARROW WARM SECTOR MAY REMAIN INLAND ACROSS ERN
NC / ERN VA AND THE DELMARVA REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

...ERN VA / ERN NC / THE DELMARVA REGION...
IN ADDITION TO QUESTIONS REGARDING POSSIBILITY OF NARROW WARM SECTOR
REMAINING ONSHORE...ANOTHER COMPLICATING FACTOR REGARDING SEVERE
THREAT ACROSS THIS REGION IS WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WHICH IS
FORECAST TO BE ONGOING ACROSS THE AREA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD.

ASSUMING SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS / PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE PARTS
OF THE WARM SECTOR...DAYTIME HEATING OF MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS
BENEATH COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW COULD
YIELD SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG CAPE.  THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG
DEEP-LAYER FLOW FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
COULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR HAIL /
LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS AND EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO. 
HOWEVER...GIVEN AFOREMENTIONED UNCERTAINTIES AND THE POSSIBILITY
THAT BOUNDARY-LAYER AIRMASS COULD REMAIN COOL / CLOUDY /
STABLE...WILL MAINTAIN RELATIVELY LOW-PROBABILITY THREAT THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

..GOSS.. 03/28/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.