[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 171458
SWODY1
SPC AC 171456

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AMEND 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0856 AM CST THU MAR 17 2005

VALID 171445Z - 181200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM FMY
VRB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE CTY 45 NNW
DAB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW HLC 30 WSW AKO
30 ENE ASE 40 ENE GJT 45 WSW CAG 25 W WRL SHR 35 ENE 81V 30 ESE PHP
FSD 25 SE SUX 25 W OMA 25 NW HLC.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN
FL PEN...

AMENDED TO ADD SLGT RISK TO SRN FL

...AMENDMENT...
PLEASE REFER TO SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 303 AND SEVERE WEATHER
WATCH 52 FOR FURTHER DETAILS ON SOUTHERN FLORIDA.

...SYNOPSIS...
BROAD...PROGRESSIVE TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NATION THROUGH
FRIDAY...S OF STATIONARY BLOCK OVER NE CANADA. THE SRN STREAM JET
...COMPRISING SRN PART OF TROUGH...WILL CONTINUE TO BE ACCOMPANIED
BY A LARGE SWATH OF ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW
OVER NE MEXICO.  FARTHER N...NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE NOW CROSSING ID
SHOULD REACH CNTRL SD/NEB BY 12Z FRIDAY.

WAVY COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH SRN STREAM OF FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE
TO EDGE SLOWLY SE ACROSS FL TODAY.  ACTUAL FRONT IS WELL N OF
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW NOW CROSSING LAKE OKEECHOBEE.  IN THE PLAINS...
CYCLONE ASSOCIATED WITH ID DISTURBANCE SHOULD MOVE SE TO NEAR FSD BY
12Z FRIDAY.

...CNTRL/S FL...
AFOREMENTIONED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND...TO A LESSER EXTENT...SYNOPTIC
COLD FRONT...WILL CONTINUE TO SERVE AS FOCI FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT TODAY IN AREA OF PERSISTENT LARGE SCALE ASCENT OVER THE
ERN GULF OF MEXICO AND FL.  MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN WEAK.
BUT MODEST LOW LEVEL DESTABILIZATION WILL LIKELY OCCUR OVER S FL S
OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...WHERE AFTERNOON SBCAPE MAY EXCEED 1250 J/KG. 
COUPLED WITH 40-50 KT UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR...SETUP
MAY SUPPORT INTENSIFICATION OF STORMS ON LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTIVE
BAND.  SMALL SCALE BOWS AND EMBEDDED CELLS WITH MID LEVEL ROTATION
COULD YIELD A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TIL LATE IN THE DAY.  A CELL
OR TWO MAY ALSO DEVELOP IN WEAKLY CAPPED/WEAKLY CONVERGENT
ENVIRONMENT S OF BOUNDARY... ALTHOUGH A MORE LIKELY SCENARIO WOULD
BE FOR PRE GUST-FRONT STORMS TO MOVE INLAND FROM THE ERN GULF. 
THESE MAY ALSO CONTAIN BRIEF STRONG WINDS.

...CNTRL HI PLNS TO LWR MO VLY...
IN CONTRAST TO FL...VERY STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
EXIST INVOF SURFACE WAVE TRACKING SE ACROSS WY/NEB/SD LATER TODAY. 
STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY EXIT REGION OF
ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL JET STREAK.  THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...
BOTH DOWNSTREAM FROM MAIN VORT MAX...AND ALONG SURFACE TROUGH/COLD
FRONT. BUILDUPS MAY ALSO OCCUR OVER THE WY/CO MOUNTAINS.

DESPITE THE POTENT COMBINATION OF LIFT AND INSTABILITY...STORM
INTENSITY WILL BE LIMITED BY MEAGER MOISTURE.  NEVERTHELESS...
HIGH-BASED CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT COUPLED WITH MODERATE
UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELD MAY YIELD A SMALL BAND OR TWO OF STORMS
WITH GUSTY WINDS IN NEB.

..KERR.. 03/17/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.