[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 121614
SWODY1
SPC AC 121612

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1012 AM CST SAT MAR 12 2005

VALID 121630Z - 131200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SW TUS 40 W TUS 40
NNE TUS 30 W SAD 20 ENE SAD 40 WNW SVC 25 SSW SVC 70 SSW DMN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S 3HT 20 NNW COD
50 WSW COD 40 NNW JAC 20 SE DLN 55 W BTM MSO 25 SE FCA 35 SW CTB 25
S 3HT.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A POTENT NEGATIVE TILT TROUGH WILL MOVE NEWD INTO THE ATLANTIC THIS
AFTERNOON WHILE ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES SWD INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. AT
THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE MID ATLANTIC WWD
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY AFTERNOON.  SOUTH OF THIS FRONT...SWLY
FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A WARM AND DRY DAY. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER 60S WILL RETURN NWD ACROSS THE WRN GULF AND INTO COASTAL TX /
LA..BUT AIR MASS WILL REMAIN CAPPED.

...SERN AZ...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON. MORNING
SOUNDINGS INDICATE VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS
THE REGION. STRONG HEATING AND CYCLONIC SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH SRN
JET WILL PROVIDE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION
TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF SERN AZ / POSSIBLY INTO EXTREME
SWRN NM. MUCAPE WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 500 J/KG WITHIN WEAK
FLOW ENVIRONMENT THUS SEVERE UNLIKELY.

...WRN MT...
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW DIGGING SWD WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES.
NWLY SFC UPSLOPE FLOW WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION WITH
ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

..JEWELL.. 03/12/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.