[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 022044
SWODY1
SPC AC 022042

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0342 PM CDT THU JUN 02 2005

VALID 022045Z - 031200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW
LAA 25 SW AKO 20 E SNY 25 NW LBF 10 W EAR 15 ENE RSL 35 SE P28 50
SSW P28 35 NW GAG 30 NW LBL 15 WNW LAA.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S
SAV 10 SSE AYS 20 WSW VLD 25 SE PFN ...CONT... 15 ESE PNS 45 NNW CEW
15 ENE MGM 25 E LGC 35 SSE AHN 15 SSW CAE CRE.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 S
MRF 35 E CNM 35 WNW PVW 35 E DHT 20 W EHA 25 SW LHX 15 WSW PUB 35
WNW FCL 30 N CYS 45 ENE AIA 9V9 50 WSW FAR 70 NNW GFK ...CONT... 10
NNW INL 25 ENE BRD 40 NNW MKT 25 S SPW 10 SSW FLV 35 W MKO 10 SE ADM
40 E SJT 15 SE DRT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SW GDP 35 S ROW 45
ENE ROW 40 ENE 4CR 25 NNE TCS 40 SW DMN ...CONT... 85 SSE GBN 35 W
SOW 15 S FMN 25 NW CEZ 35 SW BCE 20 S P38 45 NE TPH 35 NNE U31 55 W
BOI 35 ESE BKE 55 SSE S80 15 ESE DLN 10 W LVM 40 WNW 3HT 60 N 3DU 30
E GEG 45 W GEG 50 WNW 4OM ...CONT... 25 W CDR 40 NNE CDR 20 N PHP 45
WSW MBG 40 SSE Y22 40 WSW REJ 35 SSE SHR 45 SW BPI 25 ENE EVW 40 NNE
VEL 45 NNW LAR 25 W CDR ...CONT... 80 E ELO 30 ESE MSP 30 SSE FOD 20
ESE MKC 30 SSW PGO 45 SSW TYR 30 S AUS 25 NW LRD.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S 7R4 25 SE MLU 60
W MEM 15 NNE MDH 10 SE BMG 20 NW LUK 20 SW 5I3 35 E DAN 35 SE ECG.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM HUL 25 NNE EEN 20 WSW
ALB 20 W ART.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF ERN CO...WRN KS
INTO SWRN NEB...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS INTO
THE UPPER MS VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE SERN
U.S....

CORRECTED FOR TORNADO GRAPHIC

...CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS...

THIS AFTERNOON AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM E CNTRL KS NWWD TO
JUST S OF HILL CITY THEN NWWD TO NEAR GOODLAND. THE ERN PORTION OF
THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SURGE SWD THROUGH E CNTRL KS
WHERE A STRONG TO SEVERE MCS PERSISTS. A SURFACE LOW WAS INDICATED
OVER EXTREME SWRN KS WITH A DRYLINE EXTENDING SWWD FROM THE LOW
THROUGH WRN TX. A QUASISTATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE DAKOTAS SWD
THROUGH EXTREME ERN CO. THE ATMOSPHERE IS DESTABILIZING IN THE WARM
SECTOR FROM SWRN KS...ERN CO THROUGH WRN OK WITH MLCAPE FROM 2500
J/KG FROM PARTS OF NWRN TX...WRN OK INTO SWRN KS TO AROUND 500 J/KG
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF CO WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS MORE LIMITED.
CHARACTER OF THE CLOUDS S OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SUGGESTS THE
ATMOSPHERE IS STILL CAPPED ACROSS SW KS S OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
AND THIS IS CONFIRMED BY THE 18Z RAOB FROM DDC.

A MID LEVEL SPEED MAX MOVING EWD THROUGH THE CNTRL ROCKIES WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WITH AN
ATTENDANT STRENGTHENING OF THE LOW LEVEL JET. FORCING FOR ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH KS AND NEB
THIS EVENING. THE CAP SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS TEMPERATURES RISE
INTO THE LOWER 80S...AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN VICINITY
OF AND S OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET AND ATTENDANT WARM
ADVECTION INCREASES. SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. OTHER STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL
LIKELY SPREAD EWD THROUGH CO AND MAY EVOLVE INTO AN MCS ACROSS KS
AND NEB LATER TONIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS WITH A
CONTINUED THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND.



...SERN STATES...

ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE MULTICELL STORMS WILL CONTINUE WITHIN THE
MODERATELY UNSTABLE...WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT GENERALLY ALONG AND
S OF WARM FRONT FROM SRN AL...INTO SRN GA AND ERN SC. THE PRIMARY
THREATS APPEAR TO BE ISOLATED STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ACTIVITY SHOULD SUBSIDE BY EARLY EVENING
WITH LOSS OF HEATING.


...SWRN TX...

FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ENEWD
THROUGH NRN MEXICO WILL MOVE INTO WRN TX LATER TONIGHT. STEEP LAPSE
RATES...STRONG INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR SUGGEST ISOLATED
STORMS COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

..DIAL.. 06/02/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.