[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 160546
SWODY1
SPC AC 160544

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1244 AM CDT SAT JUL 16 2005

VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 W
RRT 35 WNW PHP 30 WNW RAP 45 WSW REJ 35 ENE SHR 35 NNW SHR 45 NE BIL
20 S GGW 70 NNE GGW.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE YUM 45 WSW PRC
50 NE IGM 20 SW SGU 40 NW NID 20 N FAT 15 S RNO 25 NE OWY 80 NE BOI
25 NNW S80 40 WSW GEG 50 NW 63S ...CONT... 20 WNW INL 45 N ATY 25 N
LBF 20 SSW IML 20 W AMA 40 WNW CDS 10 SE LTS 40 N ADM 45 SW JLN 35
ENE SZL 45 ESE FOD 25 E MKT 65 NW EAU 120 NE CMX.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNE BML 10 NE PWM.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NRN
PLAINS...

...ERN MT THROUGH NWRN SD AND MUCH OF ND...

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS MT SATURDAY. THE LEAD SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FEATURE WILL EJECT ENEWD INTO SRN CANADA
EARLY IN THE DAY AS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ADVANCES INTO ERN MT. THE
FRONT WILL CONTINUE EWD THROUGH THE DAKOTAS SATURDAY EVENING AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. A STRONGER UPSTREAM VORT MAX WILL MOVE EWD WITHIN
THE POST FRONTAL ZONE THROUGH MT AND ND DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. 

A DEVELOPING SLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTRIBUTE TO RICHER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE NOW RESIDING FROM SD INTO THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY ADVECTING
NWD UNDER STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. SURFACE HEATING WILL FURTHER
CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING NWD THROUGH ND AND
EXTREME ERN MT DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 3000
J/KG. INCREASING SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN A PLUME OF WARM
AIR IN THE 2-3 KM LAYER ADVECTING NEWD THROUGH THE DAKOTAS PROMOTING
 A STRONG CAP WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. THIS COULD SERVE AS A
POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTOR FOR SURFACE BASED INITIATION ON
FRONT...ESPECIALLY AS STRONGER FORCING ACCOMPANYING LEAD SHORTWAVE
AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL JET LIFT NWD INTO CANADA. BEST CHANCE FOR
SURFACE BASED STORM INITIATION WILL BE AROUND PEAK HEATING OVER NRN
ND WHERE STRONGEST FORCING ALONG FRONT IS EXPECTED. IF STORMS MANAGE
TO DEVELOP ON THE FRONT...STRONG VERTICAL HEAR WILL SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THE MAIN
THREATS.

OTHERWISE...OTHER STORMS WILL MORE LIKELY DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT
WHERE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
ACCOMPANYING STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO
OVERCOME THE EFFECTS OF THE CAP. CAPE WILL BE MORE LIMITED...BUT DRY
BOUNDARY LAYERS SUGGEST A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND AS STORMS EVOLVE
INTO LINE SEGMENTS AND ADVANCE EWD THROUGH ERN MT AND ND.

..DIAL/TAYLOR.. 07/16/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.