[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 212000
SWODY1
SPC AC 211958

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0158 PM CST FRI JAN 21 2005

VALID 212000Z - 221200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE IPL 75 SW PRC
55 SW SOW 40 ESE DUG.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SRN AZ...
CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER BAJA CA/SONORA REGION WILL MOVE SLOWLY NEWD
THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH MOISTURE CONTINUING TO SPREAD NWD INTO SRN
AZ.  IR IMAGERY/LIGHTNING DATA INDICATED AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY OVER SONORA WITHIN EXIT REGION OF STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW
ROUNDING ERN PERIPHERY OF CLOSED LOW.  STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
EXPECTED OVER SRN AZ WILL AID IN DESTABILIZATION FOR THUNDERSTORM
THREAT TO DEVELOP NWD THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS UPPER LOW MOVES
SLOWLY NEWD.

...TN VALLEY...
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS EXTENDING FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO
CENTRAL CANADA WILL EVOLVE INTO A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE UPPER
MS/LOWER OH VALLEYS BY 12Z SATURDAY.  PLUME OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES /7-7.5 C/KM/ WILL SPREAD EWD TO THE TN/LOWER OH VALLEYS BY
THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND LOWER MO VALLEY.  MODIFIED
MOISTURE RETURN BENEATH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES MAY SUPPORT A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASES WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE UPPER TROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND EXPECTED SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS
ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY.

..PETERS.. 01/21/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.