[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 081257
SWODY1
SPC AC 081255

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0655 AM CST SAT JAN 08 2005

VALID 081300Z - 091200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM UIL 25 NE HQM EUG 35
ESE EKA 25 W UKI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W BVE 30 ESE MOB
10 S TOI 10 NNE LGC 20 SE ATL MCN 20 WNW MGR 10 SSW AQQ.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
MAIN FEATURES OF INTEREST THIS PERIOD WITH RESPECT TO DEEP
CONVECTION WILL BE THE MID LEVEL LOW OFF THE WA/ORE COASTS...AND THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING ENEWD OVER THE OH VALLEY.  THE OH VALLEY
TROUGH AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE OVER PA/NY/NEW
ENGLAND BY EARLY TONIGHT.  VERY WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY HAS BEEN
SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES IN PROXIMITY TO THE MID LEVEL
DRY SLOT EARLY THIS MORNING OVER WV...BUT THIS CONVECTIVE THREAT
WILL END BY 13Z.  FARTHER S...A WEAKENING BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS
PERSISTS ACROSS SE AL/WRN FL PANHANDLE TO THE IMMEDIATE SE OF A
SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT TRAILS THE OH VALLEY LOW.  BOUNDARY LAYER
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-MID 60S WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY FOR DEEP CONVECTION TODAY ACROSS THE NE GULF COAST. 
HOWEVER...POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WEAKENING ASCENT WITH TIME
SUGGEST THAT THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH BY MID-LATE
AFTERNOON.

...WA/ORE COASTS...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE QUASI-STATIONARY LOW W OF AST...WITH A
BROAD FIELD OF LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION AND A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
NEAR AND OFF THE SW WA AND ORE COASTS. 500 MB TEMPERATURES AOB -32
C AND MEAN LAPSE RATES OF 7-8 C/KM BELOW 500 MB WILL SUPPORT AT
LEAST WEAK SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AND A CONTINUED THREAT FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.  THIS THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BE
CONFINED PRIMARILY TO THE COAST...WHILE A COLDER/DRIER AIR MASS WILL
LIMIT INSTABILITY FARTHER INLAND.

..THOMPSON.. 01/08/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.