[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 080528
SWODY1
SPC AC 080527

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1127 PM CST FRI JAN 07 2005

VALID 081200Z - 091200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM UIL 25 NE HQM EUG 35
ESE EKA SFO.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSW HUM MOB MGM 30
W ATL ATL MCN TLH 35 S AQQ.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER MID
-LOWER MS VALLEY -- IS DEAMPLIFYING AS IT ACCELERATES NEWD TOWARD
GREAT LAKES.  THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE MID ATLANTIC/NEW
ENGLAND AROUND 09/00Z...LEAVING BEHIND BROAD ZONE OF WSWLY/SWLY FLOW
FROM COAST TO COAST.  UPSTREAM MEAN TROUGH OVER NERN PACIFIC WILL BE
MAINTAINED THROUGHOUT PERIOD.  MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE OFF WA/ORE
COAST IS EXPECTED TO WOBBLE ERRATICALLY BUT REMAIN GENERALLY IN SAME
AREA...AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES PIVOT AROUND ITS CENTER.

AT SFC...CYCLONE INITIALLY OVER TN SHOULD EJECT NEWD THROUGH
RELATIVELY COOL/STABLE SFC AIR AND OFFSHORE MID-ATLANTIC -- AHEAD OF
MIDLEVEL TROUGH.  SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN
APPALACHIANS.  TRAILING PORTION OF FRONT OVER CENTRAL GULF COAST IS
PROGGED TO STALL/WEAKEN NEAR PRESENT POSITION...BUT SHOULD BE
EFFECTIVELY SHUNTED EWD ACROSS AL/GA EARLY IN PERIOD BY CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW.

...SERN CONUS...
AS MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEAMPLIFIES AND ACCELERATES AWAY FROM
AREA...LARGE SCALE SUPPORT FOR SEVERE TSTMS NOW OVER DELTA REGION
AND AL WILL DIMINISH BEFORE 08/12Z.  VEERING BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IN
MOIST SECTOR SHOULD REDUCE LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND SFC CONVERGENCE INVOF
FRONTAL/CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY.  HOWEVER...EXPECT WEAK CAPPING AND
MARGINALLY BUOYANT AIR MASS -- WITH NEARLY MOIST ADIABATIC
LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SFC DEW POINTS LOW-MID 60S F -- TO
REMAIN AHEAD OF SFC FRONT.  THIS COMBINED WITH RESIDUAL LIFT IN
FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD SUPPORT OCCASIONAL TSTMS WITHIN PLUME OF PRECIP
ACROSS THIS REGION...ESPECIALLY FIRST SEVERAL HOURS OF PERIOD. 
RISING HEIGHTS AND WARMING MIDLEVEL TEMPS SHOULD WEAKEN LAPSE RATES
ENOUGH TO LIKEWISE DIMINISH CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THROUGH LATE
MORNING INTO AFTERNOON.

...PACIFIC COAST...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS EXPECTED OVER PACIFIC
WATERS...OCCASIONALLY CROSSING OVER ADJACENT COASTAL AREAS...WITH
GREATEST COVERAGE FROM NWRN CA THROUGH WA COASTAL WATERS.  THIS IS
CONSISTENT WITH LATEST TRENDS SHOWING LIGHTNING BENEATH COOLING IR
CLOUD TOPS OFFSHORE ORE.  AS SEVERAL LOW-AMPLITUDE PERTURBATIONS
ROTATE THROUGH ERN SEMICIRCLE OF THAT LOW...ASSOCIATED ZONES OF
LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND ENHANCED MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL AFFECT
COAST INTERMITTENTLY AND THROUGH MUCH OF PERIOD...GIVEN LACK OF
MOVEMENT OF MAIN UPPER AIR CYCLONE.  ALTHOUGH ONLY ISOLATED/SPORADIC
LIGHTNING STRIKES MAY AFFECT COAST IN ANY GIVEN INTERVAL OF A FEW
HOURS...PROBABLE CUMULATIVE COVERAGE THROUGH WHOLE PERIOD WARRANTS
GEN TSTM OUTLOOK.

..EDWARDS.. 01/08/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.