[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 070516
SWODY1
SPC AC 070514

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1114 PM CST THU JAN 06 2005

VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 E PSX HOU GGG TXK
LIT MKL BNA CSV CHA GAD MEI 50 WSW HUM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM UIL 30 E AST 40 NNE
4BK UKI PRB 20 N OXR RAL 40 SSE RAL 30 WSW SAN.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE MID/UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CONUS THIS
PERIOD...FEATURING TWO PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGHS.  FIRST -- NOW
ANALYZED FROM DAKOTAS SWWD ACROSS UT...IS FCST TO MOVE ACROSS
CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY...REACHING MS VALLEY AROUND 08/06Z THEN
ACCELERATING/DEAMPLIFYING TOWARD GREAT LAKES.  SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE
-- ANALYZED FROM FL PANHANDLE WSWWD ACROSS NWRN GULF -- WILL REMAIN
WELL SE OF THIS FEATURE.  HOWEVER...WEAK FRONTAL WAVE MAY DEVELOP
AND MOVE NEWD ACROSS TN VALLEY SEPARATELY FROM WAVE NOW OFFSHORE
LOWER/MID TX COAST.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PRONOUNCED ON MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY
ATTM...WITH CYCLONIC GYRE CENTERED NEAR 36N130W.  EXPECT THIS
FEATURE TO DEAMPLIFY AFTER MOVING INLAND AROUND 07/18Z...THOUGH IT
MAY MAKE LANDFALL STRONGER THAN PROGGED BASED ON WELL-FORMED SPIRAL
SIGNATURE IN IR IMAGERY AND POSSIBILITY OF PRESSURES AS LOW AS
AROUND 980 MB...BASED ON UNCORROBORATED SHIP REPORT FROM 07/00Z. 
MODELS ARE IN QUITE GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TRACK/TIMING...AND WITH
LEAVING COLDEST/MOST UNSTABLE MIDLEVEL AIR FARTHER N AND W OVER
PACIFIC.  ANOTHER UPPER LOW NOW MOVING SWD OFFSHORE VANCOUVER ISLAND
SHOULD TURN BACK NWD OR NNEWD AGAIN...WITH ASSOCIATED COLD AIR ALOFT
BRUSHING COASTAL PACIFIC NW.  ISOLATED TSTMS POSSIBLE OVER OFFSHORE
WATERS ALONG MUCH OF PACIFIC COAST...SOME OF WHICH MAY MOVE INLAND
BEFORE DISSIPATING.

...WRN GULF COASTAL PLAIN TO PORTIONS TN VALLEY...
WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE...EMBEDDED WITHIN BROAD PLUME OF
CLOUDS/PRECIP THAT SHOULD SHIFT/EXPAND EWD FROM E TX ACROSS MS DELTA
REGION AND PORTIONS TN/MS/AL.  LOW LEVEL WAA AND MOIST ADVECTION
REGIME AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT TO LFC WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING
BUOYANCY ON BOTH SIDES OF SFC FRONT OVER WRN GULF COASTAL
PLAIN...NEWD TOWARD NRN AL.  FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ELEVATED MUCAPE
TO NEAR 600 J/KG BEHIND FRONT AND SIMILAR DIURNAL MLCAPE VALUES IN
MOISTENING WARM SECTOR.

...SRN/CENTRAL CA...
STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL CONTINUE AS
OFFSHORE SHORTWAVE TROUGH APCHS...THROUGH LATE MORNING.  BETWEEN
15-19Z...ENOUGH LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR IS PROGGED TO SUPPORT
ROTATING STORMS OVER L.A. BASIN REGION BEFORE 19Z AND OVER PORTIONS
SAN JOAQUIN/SAC VALLEY EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH 0-6 KM SHEARS
EXCEEDING 65 KT AND 0-1 KM SRH AOA 300 J/KG.  HOWEVER...SEVERAL
FACTORS INDICATE BUOYANCY WILL BE MINIMAL...INCLUDING
1. EARLY TIMING OF TROUGH ARRIVAL COMPARED TO PEAK DIURNAL
HEATING...
2. LIKELIHOOD OF WIDESPREAD CLOUDS/PRECIP...AND
3. WEAKENING OF UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MIDLEVEL COOLING/DPVA
WITH TIME.
MODIFIED ETA/ETA-KF SOUNDINGS REASONABLY DEPICT MIDLEVEL
WARM/CAPPING LAYER AHEAD OF TROUGH...WHERE SHEAR WILL BE STRONGEST. 
SUBSEQUENTLY...MUCAPE UP TO NEAR 200 J/KG POSSIBLE BENEATH AND W OF
MIDLEVEL TROUGH...BUT ACCOMPANIED BY VEERED SFC FLOW AND RELATIVELY
WEAK SHEAR.  THEREFORE WILL OUTLOOK SOME TSTM POTENTIAL PARTICULARLY
INVOF IMMEDIATE COAST...BUT NO SEVERE PROBABILITIES ATTM.

..EDWARDS.. 01/07/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.