[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 070047
SWODY1
SPC AC 070045

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0645 PM CST THU JAN 06 2005

VALID 070100Z - 071200Z.

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FCST ACROSS CONUS THROUGH
REMAINDER PERIOD.  SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE PHASING FROM BLACK HILLS
REGION SWWD ACROSS UT...AND COMBINED FEATURE WILL MOVE EWD OVER
CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD.  TO ITS SE...LOW LEVEL
WAA WILL CONTINUE...N OF FRONTAL ZONE NOW ANALYZED OFFSHORE TX
COAST. LAST VIS IMAGERY CONTINUED TO INDICATE SHARPENING DEFINITION
TO FRONTAL WAVE LOCATED 85-90 SE CRP AND DRIFTING NWD. PRIND SFC
FRONT WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE REMAINDER PERIOD.  MEANWHILE...COMPLEX
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER NERN
PACIFIC...WITH CLOSEST CENTER LOCATED ABOUT 400 NM W SFO.

...WRN GULF COASTAL PLAIN...
INCREASINGLY MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
ISENTROPICALLY OVER RELATIVELY STABLE FRONTAL/BOUNDARY LAYER
TONIGHT...RESULTING IN BAND OF SHOWERS NOW OVER E TX
EXPANDING/MOVING ACROSS ARKLATEX REGION TOWARD NRN MS. 
BRIEF/ISOLATED THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITHIN THAT PRECIP
BAND...ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z.  HOWEVER...BECAUSE OF WEAK MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND RELATED LACK OF ELEVATED CAPE...TSTM PROBABILITIES
REMAIN TOO LOW ATTM TO REINSTATE CATEGORICAL THUNDER AREA.

...COASTAL SRN CA...
MOISTURE CHANNEL AND IR IMAGERY HAS INDICATED SPORADIC COLD-TOPPED
CONVECTION FOR PAST COUPLE OF DAYS ASSOCIATED WITH COLD CORE AND
SERN SEMICIRCLE OF OFFSHORE CYCLONE. THIS INCLUDES SOME CONVECTION
NOW EVIDENT INVOF 32N125W AND MOVING EWD.  AS ASSOCIATED ZONE OF
DPVA AND MIDLEVEL DESTABILIZATION APCH SRN CA LATE TONIGHT...
ISOLATED/BRIEF THUNDER MAY OCCUR INVOF COAST OR CHANNEL ISLANDS. 
HOWEVER...THREAT APPEARS INSUFFICIENT TO WARRANT GEN TSTM OUTLOOK
OVER LAND.

..EDWARDS.. 01/07/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.