[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 031635
SWODY1
SPC AC 031634

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1034 AM CST MON JAN 03 2005

VALID 031630Z - 041200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S ELP 20 E ALM 45
WNW CVS 45 N AMA 40 ESE P28 35 NE JLN 15 NW CGI 10 N MKL 35 NW GLH
45 W TYR 40 SE P07.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNW MRY 35 NNE OXR
25 N RAL 30 SSW LAS 20 WSW GCN 15 E SOW 50 E DUG.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SRN CA INTO THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY...
STRONGEST WLY MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL SHIFT SWD ACROSS NWRN
MEXICO TODAY AS STRONG UPPER LOW SETTLES SLOWLY SSEWD TOWARDS THE
SRN CA COAST.  HOWEVER...LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST
TO STEEPEN WITHIN MOIST ONSHORE FLOW REGIME IN WAKE OF SURFACE COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND THIS AFTERNOON.  AT LEAST LOW SEVERE
PROBABILITIES ARE WARRANTED FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/WIND AND
POSSIBLY WATERSPOUTS...THOUGH OVERALL THREAT DOES NOT WARRANT A
SLIGHT RISK ATTM.

...SRN PLAINS INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN LIKELY ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD AHEAD OF STRONG UPPER LOW NOW OFF THE CA COAST...INFLUENCED
BY A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EJECTING ENEWD IN ADVANCE OF
MAIN TROUGH. ONE SUCH SYSTEM CONTINUES TO LIFT RAPIDLY ENEWD ACROSS
THE TN/OH RIVER VALLEYS THIS MORNING...WHILE ANOTHER APPEARS TO BE
LIFTING NNEWD ACROSS NRN MEXICO.  SWLY LLJ EVIDENT THIS MORNING OVER
NERN TX/AR...CURRENTLY SUPPORTING AN AREA OF ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS...WILL LIFT RAPIDLY NEWD INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY
DURING THE AFTERNOON.  THIS MAY TEMPORARILY DIMINISH THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION.  HOWEVER...APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL CONCENTRATE DEEP MOIST CONVECTION LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT FROM
THE WEST TX PLAINS ENEWD INTO NRN TX/OK...AS ASSOCIATED SLY LLJ
INCREASES ACROSS TX.  IT APPEARS THIS CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ABOVE
CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH PARCELS ORIGINATING WITHIN THE 850-700 MB
LAYER...THOUGH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL STILL SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS. OBSERVED AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AIR MASS
WILL NOT DESTABILIZE SUFFICIENTLY FOR VIGOROUS MOIST CONVECTION
DESPITE THE RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ALL READY IN PLACE.

..EVANS.. 01/03/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.