[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 030542
SWODY1
SPC AC 030540

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1140 PM CST SUN JAN 02 2005

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW PRB 30 SW NID
20 WNW IGM 10 NW FLG 40 E SOW 40 W TCS 40 SE DMN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE P07 30 S HOB
25 N CVS 10 WNW LBL 25 S SLN 15 W CMI 25 SW IND 30 SE BMG 35 WSW SDF
45 WSW MEM GGG 40 S CLL 40 SW PSX.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SRN PLAINS/OZARKS AND OH VALLEY...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY IN PLACE FROM NW TX
EXTENDING ENEWD ACROSS OK...SRN MO INTO SRN IL AND SRN IND.
A BROAD LOW-LEVEL JET ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE
WIDESPREAD LIFT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT FROM
TX NEWD TO THE OH VALLEY. AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS
TONIGHT...STORM COVERAGE SHOULD EXPAND IN COVERAGE ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE SRN PLAINS. THE ETA AND GFS AGREE ON BRINGING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ACROSS WEST TX THIS EVENING WITH A BAND OF STRONG LIFT EXTENDING
SEWD FROM THE VORTICITY MAX. THE BEST CHANCE OF STRONG ELEVATED
STORMS WOULD BE AS THIS FEATURE COMES ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR 06Z ACROSS SW OK AND NW TX
SHOW STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WITH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5
C/KM AND WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND 9,000 FEET. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH
FOR A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT AS STORMS INITIATE NEAR AND JUST SOUTH OF
THE FRONT ACROSS SRN OK AND NW TX. THE CONVECTION WILL SPREAD NNEWD
QUICKLY OVERTAKING THE FRONT. ANY MARGINAL THREAT WOULD DIMINISH AS
THE STORMS MOVE INTO THE COOLER AIR ACROSS NRN OK AND THE TX
PANHANDLE.

...CA/AZ...
AN UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF CA WILL CONTINUE TO SIT AND SPIN TODAY
WITH STRONG SWLY FLOW ACROSS THE DESERT SW. A FEW SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
WILL PASS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND WITH EACH
PASSAGE...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY. BOTH THE ETA AND GFS
SOLUTIONS SHOW A VORTICITY LOBE PUNCHING INTO AZ AROUND 06Z WITH
LAPSE RATES STEEPENING FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS WOULD APPEAR THE BEST
TIME FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH STORMS POSSIBLY INITIATING
ACROSS SRN AZ AND SPREADING NEWD INTO CNTRL AZ AND SW NM AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

..BROYLES.. 01/03/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.