[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 021636
SWODY1
SPC AC 021634

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1034 AM CST SUN JAN 02 2005

VALID 021630Z - 031200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NW UKI UKI 35 SE
MRY 25 E SMX 20 NNW RAL 20 WNW CZZ.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE CRP 35 ENE SAT
JCT 60 E FST 35 WNW MAF 50 W LBB AMA ICT 55 SW IRK 20 NNE DEC 20 NNE
BMG 20 S OWB 30 WSW ELD 35 NE LFK 35 ESE BPT.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SRN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY...
A VERY MOIST AIR MASS FOR EARLY JANUARY REMAINS IN PLACE AHEAD OF
SLOWING ARCTIC COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDING FROM THE TX PANHANDLE NEWD
INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER
50S/LOWER 60S. SURFACE FRONT WILL LIKELY ONLY SLOWLY MOVE SSEWD
OVER THE SRN PLAINS FROM ITS CURRENT LOCATION...THOUGH NRN END WILL
CONTINUE EWD BEFORE SLOWING OVER THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY/SRN GREAT
LAKES. DESPITE THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...MORNING SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN TOO WARM/STEEP TO SUPPORT SURFACE BASED
CONVECTION GIVEN THE LIMITED HEATING ANTICIPATED NEAR THE FRONT. 
INCREASING LOW LEVEL WAA AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH / NOW MOVING INTO
THE SRN ROCKIES/NRN MEXICO / WILL INCREASE CONVECTION ACROSS THE
REGION LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AS IT CONTINUES EWD.  HOWEVER...THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT
SEVERE PROBABILITIES AS ELEVATED CONVECTION BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD
THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD.

...CA COAST...
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW OFF THE ORE COAST WILL CONTINUE
DIGGING SSWWD TO JUST OFF THE CENTRAL CA COAST BY LATER TONIGHT. 
THIS WILL MAINTAIN ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE CA COAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES LIKELY SUPPORTING A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND WEST OF THE COASTAL RANGE.

..EVANS.. 01/02/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.