[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 261253
SWODY1
SPC AC 261251

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0651 AM CST SAT FEB 26 2005

VALID 261300Z - 271200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DRT SEP PRX ELD 45
ESE LUL 15 SSE AQQ.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WSW FHU GBN 50 WSW
EED BIH 35 E SAC SVE 15 ENE LOL 60 E ELY 45 S VEL 10 WNW 4FC 45 W
PUB 10 N 4SL 4CR CNM 65 SSW P07.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER THE LWR 48 THIS
PERIOD.  THE MAIN FEATURE OF NOTE AS FAR AS CONVECTIVE WEATHER IS
CONCERNED WILL BE SRN STREAM IMPULSE NOW CROSSING BAJA CA.  THIS
DISTURBANCE APPEARS TO BE MORE STRONGLY AMPLIFIED THAN PROGGED IN
THE LATEST SATELLITE DATA...A FACTOR WHICH MAY AFFECT SEVERE
POTENTIAL DURING THE DAY TWO PERIOD.  

AT THE SURFACE...WRN PART OF FRONT WHICH CROSSED THE CNTRL GULF OF
MEXICO AND FL PENINSULA YESTERDAY HAS BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER
THE WRN GULF.  AS BAJA SYSTEM CONTINUES EWD LATER TODAY...EXPECT
THAT BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NWD AS A WARM FRONT.  IT SHOULD
REACH THE NRN GULF BY 12Z SUNDAY AND SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR
CYCLOGENESIS SOMEWHERE S OF BVE/MOB.  FARTHER W...AN INVERTED TROUGH
MAY FORM IN RESPONSE TO DIFFERENTIAL SURFACE FLUXES OVER THE NW
CORNER OF THE GULF.

...TX/LA...
EXPECT RAIN SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING BAJA UPPER SYSTEM TO
EXPAND NWD AND EWD ACROSS TX AND THE NW GULF CSTL REGION LATER
TODAY. RAIN FALLING INTO EXISTING CP BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS WILL
LIKELY INHIBIT ONSHORE AIR MASS RECOVERY THROUGH THE PERIOD.  BUT
GRADUAL STEEPENING OF MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM W TO E...ALONG WITH
PERSISTENT ELEVATED MOISTURE INFLUX AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT PROVIDED
BY UPPER IMPULSE...SHOULD SUPPORT EMBEDDED CONVECTION/SCATTERED
THUNDER FROM S TX EWD INTO THE CNTRL GULF CST STATES LATER TODAY
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.  MAGNITUDE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL
PROBABLY REMAIN TOO LIMITED TO POSE A THREAT FOR HAIL OR DAMAGING
SURFACE WIND.

..CORFIDI.. 02/26/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.