[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 260038
SWODY1
SPC AC 260036

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0636 PM CST FRI FEB 25 2005

VALID 260100Z - 261200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N PIE 10 NE MLB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM SBA 15 NNW SMX 45 ESE
MRY 50 SSW MER 45 NE PRB 40 W BFL BFL FAT SAC UKI ACV 20 SW MHS 45
SW SVE RNO P38 U17 FMN GNT 65 SSW GNT PHX 60 ESE BLH 10 SSW YUM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW MRF 50 NNE MRF
40 SSE MAF SJT 10 S AUS 20 NNW VCT 30 E CRP.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

BLOCKING UPPER HIGH/LOW COUPLET OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST IS STILL
EVIDENT IN LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY...BUT AT LESSER AMPLITUDE THAN
IN RECENT DAYS...AS A SIGNIFICANT NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH
HAS FLATTENED CREST OF RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES.  OF MORE CONCERN TO THE SHORTER TERM CONVECTIVE
OUTLOOK...ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EVIDENT IN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM...PROGRESSING INTO/ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA.  

SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM APPEARS TO PHASING WITH AN IMPULSE IN THE
SUBTROPICAL BELT OF WESTERLIES...AND INCREASINGLY DIFLUENT/DIVERGENT
UPPER FLOW FIELD WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN MEXICAN PLATEAU AND
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS BY LATE TONIGHT. 
FARTHER DOWNSTREAM...SHORT WAVE RIDGING...NOW AMPLIFYING IN
SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF REGION...WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA.

...SOUTHWESTERN STATES...
WHILE SUBTLE IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITH ELONGATING SOUTHERN BRANCH
CIRCULATION MAY HAVE ENHANCED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY...MOST
PROMINENT FORCING APPEARS TO BE HEATING/OROGRAPHY BENEATH MID-LEVEL
COLD POOL.  THUS...IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT RAPID DECREASE IN ONGOING
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL AGAIN OCCUR AROUND/SHORTLY
AFTER SUNSET.

...FLORIDA PENINSULA...
STABILIZING TRENDS ASSOCIATED WITH BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO DECREASING POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS
EVENING.  LINGERING THREAT SHOULD END BY/SHORTLY AFTER 26/06Z...AS
WARMING MID-LEVELS STRENGTHEN INHIBITION ACROSS REGION.

...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TEXAS...
MODELS SUGGEST EXIT REGION OF MID/UPPER JET...ASSOCIATED WITH
SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH...WILL NOSE ACROSS THE LOWER RIO
GRANDE VALLEY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.  THIS WILL BE
PRECEDED BY INFLUX OF LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND
STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION REGIME...WHICH SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR INCREASING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS
PARTS OF CENTRAL/DEEP SOUTH TEXAS BY 26/12Z.  MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR ABOVE DEEP
INVERSION LAYER...WITH LIMITED CAPE...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MINIMIZE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

..KERR.. 02/26/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.