[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 241614
SWODY1
SPC AC 241613

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1013 AM CST THU FEB 24 2005

VALID 241630Z - 251200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CZZ RAL PRB 10 NE MER
35 SSW ELY CNY CEZ SAF HOB 25 SE INK 30 SSW SAT 10 ESE VCT 40 ESE
LFK BTR 10 ESE BVE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E AQQ 15 NNW VLD
55 S AGS 15 SE CAE GSB 25 E ECG ...CONT... DAB 15 NNW PIE.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
WHILE COLD TROUGHING TAKES PLACE OVER NERN U.S...THE OLD SWRN UPPER
LOW HAS STALLED ITS ERN MOVEMENT UNDER THE LARGE UPPER HIGH OVER PAC
NW.

E/W COLD FRONT ACROSS S CENTRAL TX CONTINUES SLOW SWD MOVEMENT
HOWEVER PRIMARY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN PROCESS OF MOVING OFFSHORE
FROM TX COAST.

...S TX...
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PUSHING SWD DEEP S TX THIS AM AND WILL
BE THRU BRO BY EARLY AFTERNOON.  SOME ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP ON COLD SIDE OF BOUNDARY DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH STRONGEST ACTIVITY LIKELY VICINITY LOWER RIO GRANDE
WHERE THE MID LEVEL INSTABILITY SHOULD STILL BE AVAILABLE.  WHILE
PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT HAS MOVED OFFSHORE...HAVE CONTINUED A LOW RISK
FOR POTENTIAL OF LARGE HAIL GIVEN THE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
STILL AVAILABLE S OF COLD FRONT.

...AZ...
OLD UPPER LOW HAS A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER OBSERVED ON THE 
VISIBLE AND RADAR IMAGERY THIS AM NWRN MARICOPA CO.  WITH LOW
TRAPPED UNDER THE NWRN U.S. UPPER HIGH...12Z MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST
CIRCULATION CENTER WILL POSSIBLY DRIFT BACK TO THE W OR NW.  THIS IS
ALREADY EVIDENT WITH THE RADAR ANIMATION OF THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS
OVER MARICOPA CO.

AIR MASS REMAINS MOIST AND WITH 7-7.5C/KM LAPSE RATES AZ INTO SRN CA
COUPLED WITH HEATING...CONVECTION WILL BECOME COMMON FROM SRN CA MTS
EWD ACROSS AZ THIS AFTERNOON.  GIVEN THE COOL STEEP LAPSE RATES AND
POTENTIALLY MUCAPES FROM 500-1000 J/KG...STRONGER STORMS WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN HAIL...POSSIBLY NEAR SEVERE LEVELS.  MOST LIKELY AREA 
WOULD BE VICINITY OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER OVER  SCENTRAL AZ.

..HALES.. 02/24/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.