[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 192202
SWODY1
SPC AC 192201

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AMEND 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0401 PM CST SAT FEB 19 2005

VALID 192000Z - 201200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW ONP 30 WSW SLE
25 ENE EUG 50 ESE EUG 50 NNW LMT 20 NE MHS 50 SW SVE 60 S TVL BIH 30
NNE P38 40 SE U24 20 NNE U28 GJT 40 E GUC 25 ENE TAD 10 SSW DHT 40
SSW LBB 20 WSW BGS 25 SE DRT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE PBF 45 ESE FSM
40 SW JLN 15 N MHK 20 SE LNK 40 N FNB 30 SE OTM 15 WSW SPI 30 SSE
MVN 10 SSE PAH 20 NNE UOX 15 ESE PBF.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

AMENDED FOR EXTEND GENERAL TSTM INTO SRN HIGH PLAINS

...SRN CA COAST EWD INTO THE LOWER CO VALLEY...
REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A CLUSTER OF TSTMS OVER LOS
ANGELES/ORANGE AND WRN PORTIONS OF SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE
COUNTIES MOVING NEWD AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ONTO THE SRN
CA COAST. CLOUD COVER ACROSS THIS AREA HAS LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING
AND RESULTANT DESTABILIZATION SO FAR TODAY. HOWEVER...FAVORABLE
SHEAR PROFILES OBSERVED ON NKX AND SOX VWPS HAS SUPPORTED SEVERAL
MINI SUPERCELLS WHICH HAVE MOVED ONSHORE OVER COURSE OF THE MORNING.
EXPECT THAT SUPERCELL AND ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL TEND TO
DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONGEST FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS EWD AWAY FROM THE PACIFIC AND ADJACENT COAST
WHERE STRONGER INSTABILITY CURRENTLY RESIDES. MOST VIGOROUS STORMS
WILL REMAIN CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND ISOLATED STRONG
WIND GUSTS INTO THIS EVENING.

FARTHER E...STRONGER DIABATIC HEATING HAS OCCURRED OVER THE LOWER CO
 VALLEY OF NWRN AZ AND SRN NV WHERE SBCAPES HAVE INCREASED TO
500-1000 J/KG. EXPECT TSTMS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
THIS AFTERNOON AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM THE W. HERE
TOO...MOST VIGOROUS STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF ISOLATED HAIL AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS. FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT TERM GUIDANCE...PLEASE SEE
MCD #0171.

...NM INTO WRN TX...
STRONG DIABATIC HEATING THIS AFTERNOON IN CONJUNCTION WITH RATHER
COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO STEEP LAPSE RATES
AND POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG.
TSTMS HAVE BECOME INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NEW MEXICO AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE EWD INTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS OF ERN NM AND POSSIBLY
FAR WRN TX. GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES IN PLACE...POTENTIAL WILL
EXIST FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF MARGINAL HAIL OR STRONG
WINDS.

..MEAD.. 02/19/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.