[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 191621
SWODY1
SPC AC 191619

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1019 AM CST SAT FEB 19 2005

VALID 191630Z - 201200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW ONP 30 WSW SLE
25 ENE EUG 50 ESE EUG 50 NNW LMT 20 NE MHS 50 SW SVE 60 S TVL BIH
P38 BCE CNY GJT GUC SAF 4CR CNM MAF 25 SE DRT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW JBR 15 NW HRO
25 WSW JLN 15 N MHK 20 SE LNK 40 N FNB 30 SE OTM 15 WSW SPI 30 SSE
MVN 10 SSE PAH DYR 15 WNW JBR.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

SURFACE AND UPPER LOW OFF CA COAST PAST SEVERAL DAYS IS OPENING UP 
AND MOVING INLAND AS A WEAKENING TROUGH IN BROAD WSWLY FLOW. NEXT
S/WV TROUGH DROPPING SWD THRU B.C. WILL REDEVELOP UPPER LOW W OF CA
SUN UNDER CONTINUING REX BLOCK REGIME.

...SRN CA...
AS S/WV TROUGH MOVES INLAND THIS MORNING...SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
CONTINUE FAVORABLE FOR LOW TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS.  WITH SFC-1KM SHEAR
UPWARDS TO 25 KT COUPLED WITH TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT WILL MAINTAIN
THREAT FOR STORM ROTATION UNTIL TROUGH MOVES E OF COASTAL AREAS. 
PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THESE ROTATING STORMS WILL BE BRIEF/ MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL...GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLY A WEAK TORNADO/WATERSPOUT
THREAT WEST OF MOUNTAINS.

STORMS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS SUBSIDENCE IN
WAKE OF S/WV TROUGH DEVELOPS.

...SRN AZ...
WITH 7C/KM LAPSE RATES IN PLACE OVER SWRN U.S. ALONG WITH A MOIST
ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF S/WV TROUGH...INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT TO REDEVELOP THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS AZ THIS AFTERNOON. 
INTENSITY/SEVERE POTENTIAL DEPENDENT PRIMARILY ON AMOUNT OF SURFACE
HEATING.  CURRENT CLEARING LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY SUGGESTS HEATING
WILL OCCUR ALLOWING SURFACE TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW/MID 60S
CENTRAL DESERT VALLEYS.

A FEW STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP DURING
AFTERNOON WITH PRIMARY POTENTIAL LARGE HAIL.  WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR
OF 45-50KT ROTATING STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WHICH WILL ENHANCE POTENTIAL
OF LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS.

..HALES.. 02/19/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.