[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 190055
SWODY1
SPC AC 190053

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0653 PM CST FRI FEB 18 2005

VALID 190100Z - 191200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 S EKA 50 WNW RBL
10 NW RBL 50 SE RBL 40 WSW TVL 55 S TVL 60 WNW BIH 15 E BIH 50 WNW
DRA 20 NNE DRA 35 S P38 15 NNE SGU 15 SSE BCE 30 ENE U17 35 NNE CEZ
15 W ALS 30 SE RTN 45 NW TCC 60 SSE LVS 25 NNE 4CR 20 WSW 4CR 35 E
TCS 35 SSE TCS 20 E DMN 40 S DMN.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...CNTRL CA COASTAL RANGES AND VALLEYS...
COMPLEX UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT EWD OVER COASTAL CA TONIGHT. HEATING OF THE DAY
AND RELATIVELY MOIST ONSHORE FLOW...COMBINED WITH WEAK OROGRAPHIC
FORCING AND COLD AIR ALOFT...HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
TSTMS FROM LA BASIN NWD TO SAN LUIS OBISPO. WHILE VERTICAL SPEED
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MARGINAL ACROSS THE REGION...SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY IN THE RANGE OF 800-1000 J/KG MUCAPE...COULD SUPPORT A
COUPLE OF STRONGER UPDRAFTS WITH ISOLATED HAIL POSSIBLE. ACTIVITY
AND HAIL THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER SUNSET.

...LWR CO RIVER VALLEY TO NM/FOUR CORNERS AREA...
PRONOUNCED MID/UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND FAST MOVING DISTURBANCES
WITHIN SE FLANK OF LARGE SCALE LOW AFFECTING CA WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT EPISODES OF STRONG UPWARD MOTION ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
THROUGH TONIGHT. TRAILING PORTION OF ONE SHORT WAVE IMPULSE MOVING
ACROSS NWRN AZ APPEARS TO BE DRIVING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER NORTH OF
TUS. WHILE A GENERAL LULL IN ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING IN THE
WAKE OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS SRN AZ...ANOTHER UPSTREAM IMPULSE IS
SUGGESTED ON WV IMAGERY ACROSS NRN BAJA. AS THIS LARGE SCALE ASCENT
COUPLES WITH LOWER LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT...AND RESIDUAL DIURNAL
INSTABILITY...ADDITIONAL SCATTERED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM SRN/ERN
AZ ACROSS NWRN NM LATER TONIGHT. WHILE ISOLATED HAIL OR STRONG WIND
GUSTS COULD OCCUR WITH ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY...OVERALL PROBABILITY OF
SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD BE DECREASING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING.

..CARBIN.. 02/19/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.